Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road Waterlogging
Floods affect road infrastructure physically and operationally, increase road user costs and road agencies cost, and eventually isolate communities. The research of the effect of floods on vehicular circulation is mainly focused on the stability of vehicles. There are few studies related to the regi...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2018-01-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/2850546 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849407348001472512 |
|---|---|
| author | Manuel Contreras-Jara Tomás Echaveguren José Vargas Baecheler Alondra Chamorro Giné Hernán de Solminihac Tampier |
| author_facet | Manuel Contreras-Jara Tomás Echaveguren José Vargas Baecheler Alondra Chamorro Giné Hernán de Solminihac Tampier |
| author_sort | Manuel Contreras-Jara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Floods affect road infrastructure physically and operationally, increase road user costs and road agencies cost, and eventually isolate communities. The research of the effect of floods on vehicular circulation is mainly focused on the stability of vehicles. There are few studies related to the regime of still water in the trafficability. In still water, the speed flow is low and does not compromise the vehicle stability. In this case, the vehicle’s wading height becomes relevant. This article proposes a procedure to estimate the traffic interruption probability caused by floods in roads, considering the still water regime. The procedure uses the first-order reliability method to estimate traffic interruption probabilities, based on the difference between the probability density functions (PDF) of still water depth (or waterlogging depth) and vehicle wading height. A specific procedure to estimate the PDF of wading height based in the geometric characteristics of light and heavy vehicles was developed. The PDF for water depth was estimated using water level profile simulation software. The procedure was applied in the south of Chile. The PDF of wading height was obtained from a record of 166,155 vehicles tagged in open road tolls. The PDF of waterlogging depth was obtained from discharge records of 10 fluviometric stations. 42 probability curves were obtained for six vehicle classes and return periods between 4 and 500 years. The still water depth obtained for traffic interruption probability of 1,0 varied between 70 and 90 cm for light vehicles and between 110 and 150 cm for heavy vehicles. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-441d54b51e4c478d93b3ed0d618198c2 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0197-6729 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-441d54b51e4c478d93b3ed0d618198c22025-08-20T03:36:06ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952018-01-01201810.1155/2018/28505462850546Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road WaterloggingManuel Contreras-Jara0Tomás Echaveguren1José Vargas Baecheler2Alondra Chamorro Giné3Hernán de Solminihac Tampier4Laboratory of Transportation Systems Management (GESITRAN), Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Concepción, Edmundo Larenas 219, Concepción, ChileLaboratory of Transportation Systems Management (GESITRAN), Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Concepción, Edmundo Larenas 219, Concepción, ChileLaboratory of Transportation Systems Management (GESITRAN), Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Concepción, Edmundo Larenas 219, Concepción, ChileNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Avda. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago, ChileDepartment of Construction Engineering and Management, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avda. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago, ChileFloods affect road infrastructure physically and operationally, increase road user costs and road agencies cost, and eventually isolate communities. The research of the effect of floods on vehicular circulation is mainly focused on the stability of vehicles. There are few studies related to the regime of still water in the trafficability. In still water, the speed flow is low and does not compromise the vehicle stability. In this case, the vehicle’s wading height becomes relevant. This article proposes a procedure to estimate the traffic interruption probability caused by floods in roads, considering the still water regime. The procedure uses the first-order reliability method to estimate traffic interruption probabilities, based on the difference between the probability density functions (PDF) of still water depth (or waterlogging depth) and vehicle wading height. A specific procedure to estimate the PDF of wading height based in the geometric characteristics of light and heavy vehicles was developed. The PDF for water depth was estimated using water level profile simulation software. The procedure was applied in the south of Chile. The PDF of wading height was obtained from a record of 166,155 vehicles tagged in open road tolls. The PDF of waterlogging depth was obtained from discharge records of 10 fluviometric stations. 42 probability curves were obtained for six vehicle classes and return periods between 4 and 500 years. The still water depth obtained for traffic interruption probability of 1,0 varied between 70 and 90 cm for light vehicles and between 110 and 150 cm for heavy vehicles.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/2850546 |
| spellingShingle | Manuel Contreras-Jara Tomás Echaveguren José Vargas Baecheler Alondra Chamorro Giné Hernán de Solminihac Tampier Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road Waterlogging Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road Waterlogging |
| title_full | Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road Waterlogging |
| title_fullStr | Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road Waterlogging |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road Waterlogging |
| title_short | Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road Waterlogging |
| title_sort | reliability based estimation of traffic interruption probability due to road waterlogging |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/2850546 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT manuelcontrerasjara reliabilitybasedestimationoftrafficinterruptionprobabilityduetoroadwaterlogging AT tomasechaveguren reliabilitybasedestimationoftrafficinterruptionprobabilityduetoroadwaterlogging AT josevargasbaecheler reliabilitybasedestimationoftrafficinterruptionprobabilityduetoroadwaterlogging AT alondrachamorrogine reliabilitybasedestimationoftrafficinterruptionprobabilityduetoroadwaterlogging AT hernandesolminihactampier reliabilitybasedestimationoftrafficinterruptionprobabilityduetoroadwaterlogging |