Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south

Abstract As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their climatic niches, leading to the warming of ecological communities (thermophilisation). We currently have little understanding of the population-level processes driving this community-level warming, particularly at rapidl...

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Main Authors: Emilie E. Ellis, Laura H. Antão, Andréa Davrinche, Jussi Mäkinen, Mark Rees, Irene Conenna, Ida-Maria Huikkonen, Reima Leinonen, Juha Pöyry, Anna Suuronen, Anna-Liisa Laine, Marjo Saastamoinen, Jarno Vanhatalo, Tomas Roslin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-08-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62216-9
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author Emilie E. Ellis
Laura H. Antão
Andréa Davrinche
Jussi Mäkinen
Mark Rees
Irene Conenna
Ida-Maria Huikkonen
Reima Leinonen
Juha Pöyry
Anna Suuronen
Anna-Liisa Laine
Marjo Saastamoinen
Jarno Vanhatalo
Tomas Roslin
author_facet Emilie E. Ellis
Laura H. Antão
Andréa Davrinche
Jussi Mäkinen
Mark Rees
Irene Conenna
Ida-Maria Huikkonen
Reima Leinonen
Juha Pöyry
Anna Suuronen
Anna-Liisa Laine
Marjo Saastamoinen
Jarno Vanhatalo
Tomas Roslin
author_sort Emilie E. Ellis
collection DOAJ
description Abstract As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their climatic niches, leading to the warming of ecological communities (thermophilisation). We currently have little understanding of the population-level processes driving this community-level warming, particularly at rapidly warming high latitudes. Using 30 years of high-resolution moth monitoring data across a 1200 km latitudinal gradient in Finland, we find that higher latitude communities are experiencing more rapid thermophilisation. We attribute this spatial variation to colonisation-extinction dynamics, both for the full community and for thermal affinity groups. Our findings reveal that latitudinal variation in the pathways underpinning thermophilisation is the net outcome of opposite forces: in the north, community warming is driven by the extinction of cold-affiliated species, while in the south it is driven by high colonisation rates of warm-affiliated species. Thus, we show how species’ thermal affinities influence community reorganisation and highlight the elevated extinction risk among cold-affiliated species.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2041-1723
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publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Nature Communications
spelling doaj-art-4273487cb15f425b91a8c05ff735aff12025-08-20T04:03:06ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-08-0116111210.1038/s41467-025-62216-9Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the southEmilie E. Ellis0Laura H. Antão1Andréa Davrinche2Jussi Mäkinen3Mark Rees4Irene Conenna5Ida-Maria Huikkonen6Reima Leinonen7Juha Pöyry8Anna Suuronen9Anna-Liisa Laine10Marjo Saastamoinen11Jarno Vanhatalo12Tomas Roslin13Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiSchool of Biosciences, University of SheffieldResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE)Kainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the EnvironmentFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE)Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiAbstract As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their climatic niches, leading to the warming of ecological communities (thermophilisation). We currently have little understanding of the population-level processes driving this community-level warming, particularly at rapidly warming high latitudes. Using 30 years of high-resolution moth monitoring data across a 1200 km latitudinal gradient in Finland, we find that higher latitude communities are experiencing more rapid thermophilisation. We attribute this spatial variation to colonisation-extinction dynamics, both for the full community and for thermal affinity groups. Our findings reveal that latitudinal variation in the pathways underpinning thermophilisation is the net outcome of opposite forces: in the north, community warming is driven by the extinction of cold-affiliated species, while in the south it is driven by high colonisation rates of warm-affiliated species. Thus, we show how species’ thermal affinities influence community reorganisation and highlight the elevated extinction risk among cold-affiliated species.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62216-9
spellingShingle Emilie E. Ellis
Laura H. Antão
Andréa Davrinche
Jussi Mäkinen
Mark Rees
Irene Conenna
Ida-Maria Huikkonen
Reima Leinonen
Juha Pöyry
Anna Suuronen
Anna-Liisa Laine
Marjo Saastamoinen
Jarno Vanhatalo
Tomas Roslin
Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south
Nature Communications
title Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south
title_full Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south
title_fullStr Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south
title_full_unstemmed Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south
title_short Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south
title_sort recent community warming of moths in finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62216-9
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