Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south
Abstract As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their climatic niches, leading to the warming of ecological communities (thermophilisation). We currently have little understanding of the population-level processes driving this community-level warming, particularly at rapidl...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62216-9 |
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| author | Emilie E. Ellis Laura H. Antão Andréa Davrinche Jussi Mäkinen Mark Rees Irene Conenna Ida-Maria Huikkonen Reima Leinonen Juha Pöyry Anna Suuronen Anna-Liisa Laine Marjo Saastamoinen Jarno Vanhatalo Tomas Roslin |
| author_facet | Emilie E. Ellis Laura H. Antão Andréa Davrinche Jussi Mäkinen Mark Rees Irene Conenna Ida-Maria Huikkonen Reima Leinonen Juha Pöyry Anna Suuronen Anna-Liisa Laine Marjo Saastamoinen Jarno Vanhatalo Tomas Roslin |
| author_sort | Emilie E. Ellis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their climatic niches, leading to the warming of ecological communities (thermophilisation). We currently have little understanding of the population-level processes driving this community-level warming, particularly at rapidly warming high latitudes. Using 30 years of high-resolution moth monitoring data across a 1200 km latitudinal gradient in Finland, we find that higher latitude communities are experiencing more rapid thermophilisation. We attribute this spatial variation to colonisation-extinction dynamics, both for the full community and for thermal affinity groups. Our findings reveal that latitudinal variation in the pathways underpinning thermophilisation is the net outcome of opposite forces: in the north, community warming is driven by the extinction of cold-affiliated species, while in the south it is driven by high colonisation rates of warm-affiliated species. Thus, we show how species’ thermal affinities influence community reorganisation and highlight the elevated extinction risk among cold-affiliated species. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4273487cb15f425b91a8c05ff735aff1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-4273487cb15f425b91a8c05ff735aff12025-08-20T04:03:06ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-08-0116111210.1038/s41467-025-62216-9Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the southEmilie E. Ellis0Laura H. Antão1Andréa Davrinche2Jussi Mäkinen3Mark Rees4Irene Conenna5Ida-Maria Huikkonen6Reima Leinonen7Juha Pöyry8Anna Suuronen9Anna-Liisa Laine10Marjo Saastamoinen11Jarno Vanhatalo12Tomas Roslin13Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiSchool of Biosciences, University of SheffieldResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE)Kainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the EnvironmentFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE)Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of HelsinkiAbstract As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their climatic niches, leading to the warming of ecological communities (thermophilisation). We currently have little understanding of the population-level processes driving this community-level warming, particularly at rapidly warming high latitudes. Using 30 years of high-resolution moth monitoring data across a 1200 km latitudinal gradient in Finland, we find that higher latitude communities are experiencing more rapid thermophilisation. We attribute this spatial variation to colonisation-extinction dynamics, both for the full community and for thermal affinity groups. Our findings reveal that latitudinal variation in the pathways underpinning thermophilisation is the net outcome of opposite forces: in the north, community warming is driven by the extinction of cold-affiliated species, while in the south it is driven by high colonisation rates of warm-affiliated species. Thus, we show how species’ thermal affinities influence community reorganisation and highlight the elevated extinction risk among cold-affiliated species.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62216-9 |
| spellingShingle | Emilie E. Ellis Laura H. Antão Andréa Davrinche Jussi Mäkinen Mark Rees Irene Conenna Ida-Maria Huikkonen Reima Leinonen Juha Pöyry Anna Suuronen Anna-Liisa Laine Marjo Saastamoinen Jarno Vanhatalo Tomas Roslin Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south Nature Communications |
| title | Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south |
| title_full | Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south |
| title_fullStr | Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south |
| title_full_unstemmed | Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south |
| title_short | Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south |
| title_sort | recent community warming of moths in finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62216-9 |
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