How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 models
Abstract Observational evidence has shown that Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes (CWPEs) can cause substantial disruptions to natural and economic systems under climate change. This study conducts a historical assessment and future projection of CWPEs characteristics in the climate vulnerable...
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Wiley
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1293 |
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| author | Yifei Jiang Fei Ge Quanliang Chen Zhiye Lin Klaus Fraedrich Zhang Chen |
| author_facet | Yifei Jiang Fei Ge Quanliang Chen Zhiye Lin Klaus Fraedrich Zhang Chen |
| author_sort | Yifei Jiang |
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| description | Abstract Observational evidence has shown that Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes (CWPEs) can cause substantial disruptions to natural and economic systems under climate change. This study conducts a historical assessment and future projection of CWPEs characteristics in the climate vulnerable region of Southeast Asia (SEA) based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results reveal that the northern Philippines, the eastern and northwestern coastal areas of the Indochina Peninsula have experienced the most frequent, strongest CWPEs during the period of 1985–2014. SEA is projected to experience a frequency increase of 14.4% (22.5%) and intensity increase of 9.4% (19.5%) under the SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5) scenario at the end of 21st century (2070–2099). Kalimantan appears to replace the Philippines as the most affected area, particularly under high emission scenario. In addition, the changes in CWPEs are primarily driven by the changes in precipitation, with the average contribution of precipitation changes across the whole region is 62.8% (70.4%) under the SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5) scenario. For precipitation uncertainties, the contribution from model uncertainty decreases over time (from 73.9% to 42.7%), while scenario uncertainty increases (from 20.3% to 55.0%). In contrast, for wind projections, model uncertainty remains the dominant factor (from 81.3% to 87.6%) with little change. The present study reveals the high sensitivity of the CWPEs over SEA under global warming and highlighting the risks of future disaster impact in such vulnerable regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3d9cbd2dfbcc47cbbbfdca1be76173f6 |
| institution | DOAJ |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-3d9cbd2dfbcc47cbbbfdca1be76173f62025-08-20T03:11:24ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2025-02-01262n/an/a10.1002/asl.1293How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 modelsYifei Jiang0Fei Ge1Quanliang Chen2Zhiye Lin3Klaus Fraedrich4Zhang Chen5School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Chengdu Plain Urban Meteorology and Environment Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province/Sichuan Meteorological Disaster Prediction and Early Warning Engineering Laboratory, Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Chengdu Plain Urban Meteorology and Environment Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province/Sichuan Meteorological Disaster Prediction and Early Warning Engineering Laboratory, Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Chengdu Plain Urban Meteorology and Environment Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province/Sichuan Meteorological Disaster Prediction and Early Warning Engineering Laboratory, Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu ChinaZhangzhou Meteorological Bureau Fujian ChinaMax‐Plank‐Institute for Meteorology Hamburg GermanySchool of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Chengdu Plain Urban Meteorology and Environment Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province/Sichuan Meteorological Disaster Prediction and Early Warning Engineering Laboratory, Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu ChinaAbstract Observational evidence has shown that Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes (CWPEs) can cause substantial disruptions to natural and economic systems under climate change. This study conducts a historical assessment and future projection of CWPEs characteristics in the climate vulnerable region of Southeast Asia (SEA) based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results reveal that the northern Philippines, the eastern and northwestern coastal areas of the Indochina Peninsula have experienced the most frequent, strongest CWPEs during the period of 1985–2014. SEA is projected to experience a frequency increase of 14.4% (22.5%) and intensity increase of 9.4% (19.5%) under the SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5) scenario at the end of 21st century (2070–2099). Kalimantan appears to replace the Philippines as the most affected area, particularly under high emission scenario. In addition, the changes in CWPEs are primarily driven by the changes in precipitation, with the average contribution of precipitation changes across the whole region is 62.8% (70.4%) under the SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5) scenario. For precipitation uncertainties, the contribution from model uncertainty decreases over time (from 73.9% to 42.7%), while scenario uncertainty increases (from 20.3% to 55.0%). In contrast, for wind projections, model uncertainty remains the dominant factor (from 81.3% to 87.6%) with little change. The present study reveals the high sensitivity of the CWPEs over SEA under global warming and highlighting the risks of future disaster impact in such vulnerable regions.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1293climate changeCMIP6compound wind and precipitation extremesSoutheast Asia |
| spellingShingle | Yifei Jiang Fei Ge Quanliang Chen Zhiye Lin Klaus Fraedrich Zhang Chen How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 models Atmospheric Science Letters climate change CMIP6 compound wind and precipitation extremes Southeast Asia |
| title | How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 models |
| title_full | How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 models |
| title_fullStr | How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 models |
| title_full_unstemmed | How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 models |
| title_short | How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 models |
| title_sort | how compound wind and precipitation extremes change over southeast asia a comprehensive assessment from cmip6 models |
| topic | climate change CMIP6 compound wind and precipitation extremes Southeast Asia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1293 |
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