Estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0% and over 50%: why?

Background Published estimations of the extent of breast cancer overdiagnosis vary widely, and there have been heated debates around these estimations. Some high estimates have even been the basis of campaigns against national breast cancer screening programmes. Identifying some of the sources of he...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Catherine Hill, Dan Chaltiel
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2021-06-01
Series:BMJ Open
Online Access:https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/6/e046353.full
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1846162894616526848
author Catherine Hill
Dan Chaltiel
author_facet Catherine Hill
Dan Chaltiel
author_sort Catherine Hill
collection DOAJ
description Background Published estimations of the extent of breast cancer overdiagnosis vary widely, and there have been heated debates around these estimations. Some high estimates have even been the basis of campaigns against national breast cancer screening programmes. Identifying some of the sources of heterogeneity between different estimates would help to clarify the issue.Methods The simple case of neuroblastoma—a childhood cancer—screening is used to describe the basic principle of overdiagnosis estimation. The more complicated mechanism of breast cancer overdiagnosis is described based on data from Denmark, taking into account the type of data used, individual or aggregated.Findings The type of data used in overdiagnosis studies has a meaningful effect on the estimation: no study based on individual data provides an estimate higher than 17%, while studies based on aggregated data often provide estimates higher than 40%. This is too systematic to be random. The analysis of two Danish studies, one of each kind, highlights the biases that come with the use of aggregated data and shows how they can lead to overdiagnosis.Interpretation Many estimates of overdiagnosis associated with breast cancer screening programmes are serious overestimations.
format Article
id doaj-art-3d5996a1c899493a9c5819d94ebc69eb
institution Kabale University
issn 2044-6055
language English
publishDate 2021-06-01
publisher BMJ Publishing Group
record_format Article
series BMJ Open
spelling doaj-art-3d5996a1c899493a9c5819d94ebc69eb2024-11-20T02:05:07ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552021-06-0111610.1136/bmjopen-2020-046353Estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0% and over 50%: why?Catherine Hill0Dan Chaltiel1Rheumatology Unit, The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia1 Bureau de Biostatistique et d’Épidémiologie, Gustave Roussy, Université Paris-Saclay, Villejuif, FranceBackground Published estimations of the extent of breast cancer overdiagnosis vary widely, and there have been heated debates around these estimations. Some high estimates have even been the basis of campaigns against national breast cancer screening programmes. Identifying some of the sources of heterogeneity between different estimates would help to clarify the issue.Methods The simple case of neuroblastoma—a childhood cancer—screening is used to describe the basic principle of overdiagnosis estimation. The more complicated mechanism of breast cancer overdiagnosis is described based on data from Denmark, taking into account the type of data used, individual or aggregated.Findings The type of data used in overdiagnosis studies has a meaningful effect on the estimation: no study based on individual data provides an estimate higher than 17%, while studies based on aggregated data often provide estimates higher than 40%. This is too systematic to be random. The analysis of two Danish studies, one of each kind, highlights the biases that come with the use of aggregated data and shows how they can lead to overdiagnosis.Interpretation Many estimates of overdiagnosis associated with breast cancer screening programmes are serious overestimations.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/6/e046353.full
spellingShingle Catherine Hill
Dan Chaltiel
Estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0% and over 50%: why?
BMJ Open
title Estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0% and over 50%: why?
title_full Estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0% and over 50%: why?
title_fullStr Estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0% and over 50%: why?
title_full_unstemmed Estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0% and over 50%: why?
title_short Estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0% and over 50%: why?
title_sort estimations of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening vary between 0 and over 50 why
url https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/6/e046353.full
work_keys_str_mv AT catherinehill estimationsofoverdiagnosisinbreastcancerscreeningvarybetween0andover50why
AT danchaltiel estimationsofoverdiagnosisinbreastcancerscreeningvarybetween0andover50why