Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture Terminations
The 6 February 2023 M<sub>W</sub> 7.8 and M<sub>W</sub> 7.6 earthquakes in southeastern Türkiye ruptured more than 400 km of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), producing one of the most destructive seismic sequences in recent history. Here, we integrate InSAR data, a new G...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Remote Sensing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/13/2270 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849320015298297856 |
|---|---|
| author | Daniele Cheloni Nicola Angelo Famiglietti Aybige Akinci Riccardo Caputo Annamaria Vicari |
| author_facet | Daniele Cheloni Nicola Angelo Famiglietti Aybige Akinci Riccardo Caputo Annamaria Vicari |
| author_sort | Daniele Cheloni |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The 6 February 2023 M<sub>W</sub> 7.8 and M<sub>W</sub> 7.6 earthquakes in southeastern Türkiye ruptured more than 400 km of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), producing one of the most destructive seismic sequences in recent history. Here, we integrate InSAR data, a new GNSS velocity field, and small-magnitude earthquakes to investigate the coseismic deformation, rupture geometry, and interseismic strain accumulation along the EAFZ. Using elastic dislocation modeling with a variable-strike, multi-segment fault geometry, we constrain the slip distribution of the mainshocks, showing improved fits to the surface displacement compared to the planar fault model. The M<sub>W</sub> 7.8 event ruptured a number of fault segments over ~300 km, while the M<sub>W</sub> 7.6 event activated a more localized fault system with a peak slip exceeding 15 m. We also model two moderate events (M<sub>W</sub> 5.6 in 2020 and M<sub>W</sub> 5.3 in 2022) along the southwestern part of the Pütürge segment—an area not ruptured during the 2020 or 2023 sequences. GNSS-derived strain-rate and locking depth estimates reveal strong interseismic coupling and significant strain accumulation in this region, suggesting the potential for a future large earthquake (M<sub>W</sub> 6.6–7.1). Similarly, the Hatay region, at the southwestern termination of the 2023 rupture, shows a persistent strain accumulation and complex fault interactions involving the Dead Sea Fault and the Cyprus Arc. Our results demonstrate the importance of combining remote sensing and geodetic data to constrain fault kinematics, evaluate rupture segmentation, and assess the seismic hazard in tectonically active regions. Targeted monitoring at rupture terminations—such as the Pütürge and Hatay sectors—may be crucial for anticipating future large-magnitude earthquakes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3cf1ab8379e94d9ab9047a0a917161b5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj-art-3cf1ab8379e94d9ab9047a0a917161b52025-08-20T03:50:16ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922025-07-011713227010.3390/rs17132270Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture TerminationsDaniele Cheloni0Nicola Angelo Famiglietti1Aybige Akinci2Riccardo Caputo3Annamaria Vicari4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Irpinia, 83035 Grottaminarda, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, ItalyDepartment of Physics & Earth Sciences, Ferrara University, 44121 Ferrara, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Irpinia, 83035 Grottaminarda, ItalyThe 6 February 2023 M<sub>W</sub> 7.8 and M<sub>W</sub> 7.6 earthquakes in southeastern Türkiye ruptured more than 400 km of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), producing one of the most destructive seismic sequences in recent history. Here, we integrate InSAR data, a new GNSS velocity field, and small-magnitude earthquakes to investigate the coseismic deformation, rupture geometry, and interseismic strain accumulation along the EAFZ. Using elastic dislocation modeling with a variable-strike, multi-segment fault geometry, we constrain the slip distribution of the mainshocks, showing improved fits to the surface displacement compared to the planar fault model. The M<sub>W</sub> 7.8 event ruptured a number of fault segments over ~300 km, while the M<sub>W</sub> 7.6 event activated a more localized fault system with a peak slip exceeding 15 m. We also model two moderate events (M<sub>W</sub> 5.6 in 2020 and M<sub>W</sub> 5.3 in 2022) along the southwestern part of the Pütürge segment—an area not ruptured during the 2020 or 2023 sequences. GNSS-derived strain-rate and locking depth estimates reveal strong interseismic coupling and significant strain accumulation in this region, suggesting the potential for a future large earthquake (M<sub>W</sub> 6.6–7.1). Similarly, the Hatay region, at the southwestern termination of the 2023 rupture, shows a persistent strain accumulation and complex fault interactions involving the Dead Sea Fault and the Cyprus Arc. Our results demonstrate the importance of combining remote sensing and geodetic data to constrain fault kinematics, evaluate rupture segmentation, and assess the seismic hazard in tectonically active regions. Targeted monitoring at rupture terminations—such as the Pütürge and Hatay sectors—may be crucial for anticipating future large-magnitude earthquakes.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/13/2270source modelingInSARGNSSKahramanmaraş earthquakestrike-slip faultPütürge |
| spellingShingle | Daniele Cheloni Nicola Angelo Famiglietti Aybige Akinci Riccardo Caputo Annamaria Vicari Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture Terminations Remote Sensing source modeling InSAR GNSS Kahramanmaraş earthquake strike-slip fault Pütürge |
| title | Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture Terminations |
| title_full | Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture Terminations |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture Terminations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture Terminations |
| title_short | Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture Terminations |
| title_sort | modeling the 2023 turkiye earthquakes and strain accumulation along the east anatolian fault zone insights from insar gnss and small magnitude seismicity with implications for the seismic potential at rupture terminations |
| topic | source modeling InSAR GNSS Kahramanmaraş earthquake strike-slip fault Pütürge |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/13/2270 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT danielecheloni modelingthe2023turkiyeearthquakesandstrainaccumulationalongtheeastanatolianfaultzoneinsightsfrominsargnssandsmallmagnitudeseismicitywithimplicationsfortheseismicpotentialatruptureterminations AT nicolaangelofamiglietti modelingthe2023turkiyeearthquakesandstrainaccumulationalongtheeastanatolianfaultzoneinsightsfrominsargnssandsmallmagnitudeseismicitywithimplicationsfortheseismicpotentialatruptureterminations AT aybigeakinci modelingthe2023turkiyeearthquakesandstrainaccumulationalongtheeastanatolianfaultzoneinsightsfrominsargnssandsmallmagnitudeseismicitywithimplicationsfortheseismicpotentialatruptureterminations AT riccardocaputo modelingthe2023turkiyeearthquakesandstrainaccumulationalongtheeastanatolianfaultzoneinsightsfrominsargnssandsmallmagnitudeseismicitywithimplicationsfortheseismicpotentialatruptureterminations AT annamariavicari modelingthe2023turkiyeearthquakesandstrainaccumulationalongtheeastanatolianfaultzoneinsightsfrominsargnssandsmallmagnitudeseismicitywithimplicationsfortheseismicpotentialatruptureterminations |