Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States
Emergence of antigenically diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants may be correlated with temporal circulation patterns. We analyzed positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in the United States reported to a national, laboratory-based surveillance network and unique amino acid sequences of the S1 region of the spike protein...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/8/25-0451_article |
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| Summary: | Emergence of antigenically diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants may be correlated with temporal circulation patterns. We analyzed positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in the United States reported to a national, laboratory-based surveillance network and unique amino acid sequences of the S1 region of the spike protein reported to national genomic surveillance during October 2020–September 2024. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 dominant periodicities using a discrete Fourier transform, described S1 variation using the Simpson diversity index (SDI), and estimated Spearman cross-correlation coefficients between percentage change in SDI and percentage positivity. SARS-CoV-2 activity consistently peaked during July–September and December–February, and dominant periodicities were at weeks 52.2 and 26.1. Percentage positivity and percentage change in SDI were negatively correlated (ρ = −0.30; p<0.001). SARS-CoV-2 peaks occurred in late summer and winter, a pattern likely related to rapid SARS-CoV-2 evolution and cyclical diversity. Monitoring associations between percentage positivity and SDI can help forecast expected surges and optimize prevention and preparedness.
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| ISSN: | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |