Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations
Abstract The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground‐based infrastructure, and high‐altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002688 |
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| author | M. K. Mooney M. S. Marsh C. Forsyth M. Sharpe T. Hughes S. Bingham D. R. Jackson I. J. Rae G. Chisham |
| author_facet | M. K. Mooney M. S. Marsh C. Forsyth M. Sharpe T. Hughes S. Bingham D. R. Jackson I. J. Rae G. Chisham |
| author_sort | M. K. Mooney |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground‐based infrastructure, and high‐altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30‐min forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002. Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp = 8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION‐Prime 2013 tends to underpredict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1–6, while probabilities of over 90% are overpredicted. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3bff09e475f54377b68c8dd06212504d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-3bff09e475f54377b68c8dd06212504d2025-01-14T16:30:28ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902021-08-01198n/an/a10.1029/2020SW002688Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite ObservationsM. K. Mooney0M. S. Marsh1C. Forsyth2M. Sharpe3T. Hughes4S. Bingham5D. R. Jackson6I. J. Rae7G. Chisham8Mullard Space Science Laboratory University College London Surrey UKMet Office Exeter UKMullard Space Science Laboratory University College London Surrey UKMet Office Exeter UKMet Office Exeter UKMet Office Exeter UKMet Office Exeter UKNorthumbria University Newcastle UKBritish Antarctic Survey Cambridge UKAbstract The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground‐based infrastructure, and high‐altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30‐min forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002. Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp = 8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION‐Prime 2013 tends to underpredict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1–6, while probabilities of over 90% are overpredicted.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002688Auroraauroral forecastingforecast verificationOVATION‐Prime 2013ROC scoresspace weather |
| spellingShingle | M. K. Mooney M. S. Marsh C. Forsyth M. Sharpe T. Hughes S. Bingham D. R. Jackson I. J. Rae G. Chisham Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations Space Weather Aurora auroral forecasting forecast verification OVATION‐Prime 2013 ROC scores space weather |
| title | Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations |
| title_full | Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations |
| title_short | Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations |
| title_sort | evaluating auroral forecasts against satellite observations |
| topic | Aurora auroral forecasting forecast verification OVATION‐Prime 2013 ROC scores space weather |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002688 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mkmooney evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations AT msmarsh evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations AT cforsyth evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations AT msharpe evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations AT thughes evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations AT sbingham evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations AT drjackson evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations AT ijrae evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations AT gchisham evaluatingauroralforecastsagainstsatelliteobservations |