Évaluation de l'impact économique de la COVID-19 en Afrique subsaharienne : perspectives à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC)
This chapter uses a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the likely economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We simulate three scenarios: (1) a rapid and effective policy response in sub-Saharan Africa implying that the spread of COVID-19 is contained by early J...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Institut de Hautes Études Internationales et du Développement
2020-08-01
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| Series: | Revue Internationale de Politique de Développement |
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| Online Access: | https://journals.openedition.org/poldev/3546 |
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| author | Calvin Djiofack Zebaze Hasan Dudu Albert G. Zeufack |
| author_facet | Calvin Djiofack Zebaze Hasan Dudu Albert G. Zeufack |
| author_sort | Calvin Djiofack Zebaze |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This chapter uses a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the likely economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We simulate three scenarios: (1) a rapid and effective policy response in sub-Saharan Africa implying that the spread of COVID-19 is contained by early July 2020; (2) a slow and ineffective policy response that prolongs the pandemic through 2021; (3) a worst-case scenario combining scenario 2 and border closures within the region. The decline in regional GDP in 2020 relative to a reference scenario (where the pandemic never occurs) ranges from 5.7% in the relatively optimistic scenario to 7.65 in the pessimistic scenario. The pandemic would lower revenues from taxes and fees while raising spending, leading to a substantial deterioration in the fiscal deficit. Household income would plummet as labour force participation falls. The poor would be disproportionately affected, as many are employed in agriculture and low-end services, where output would fall sharply. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3a67553e69004d5c87198086edfbdac7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1663-9375 1663-9391 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-08-01 |
| publisher | Institut de Hautes Études Internationales et du Développement |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revue Internationale de Politique de Développement |
| spelling | doaj-art-3a67553e69004d5c87198086edfbdac72024-12-09T15:47:45ZengInstitut de Hautes Études Internationales et du DéveloppementRevue Internationale de Politique de Développement1663-93751663-93912020-08-0112210.4000/poldev.3546Évaluation de l'impact économique de la COVID-19 en Afrique subsaharienne : perspectives à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC)Calvin Djiofack ZebazeHasan DuduAlbert G. ZeufackThis chapter uses a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the likely economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We simulate three scenarios: (1) a rapid and effective policy response in sub-Saharan Africa implying that the spread of COVID-19 is contained by early July 2020; (2) a slow and ineffective policy response that prolongs the pandemic through 2021; (3) a worst-case scenario combining scenario 2 and border closures within the region. The decline in regional GDP in 2020 relative to a reference scenario (where the pandemic never occurs) ranges from 5.7% in the relatively optimistic scenario to 7.65 in the pessimistic scenario. The pandemic would lower revenues from taxes and fees while raising spending, leading to a substantial deterioration in the fiscal deficit. Household income would plummet as labour force participation falls. The poor would be disproportionately affected, as many are employed in agriculture and low-end services, where output would fall sharply.https://journals.openedition.org/poldev/3546pays émergentspauvretéCOVID-19travail |
| spellingShingle | Calvin Djiofack Zebaze Hasan Dudu Albert G. Zeufack Évaluation de l'impact économique de la COVID-19 en Afrique subsaharienne : perspectives à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) Revue Internationale de Politique de Développement pays émergents pauvreté COVID-19 travail |
| title | Évaluation de l'impact économique de la COVID-19 en Afrique subsaharienne : perspectives à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) |
| title_full | Évaluation de l'impact économique de la COVID-19 en Afrique subsaharienne : perspectives à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) |
| title_fullStr | Évaluation de l'impact économique de la COVID-19 en Afrique subsaharienne : perspectives à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Évaluation de l'impact économique de la COVID-19 en Afrique subsaharienne : perspectives à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) |
| title_short | Évaluation de l'impact économique de la COVID-19 en Afrique subsaharienne : perspectives à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) |
| title_sort | evaluation de l impact economique de la covid 19 en afrique subsaharienne perspectives a partir d un modele d equilibre general calculable egc |
| topic | pays émergents pauvreté COVID-19 travail |
| url | https://journals.openedition.org/poldev/3546 |
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