Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2
Abstract Rising atmospheric CO2 is anticipated to influence global runoff through its radiative effect and physiological effect, thereby resulting in profound impacts on water availability and security. While existing literature has explored the two effects on global total runoff, there is still a l...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005091 |
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| _version_ | 1846129090218688512 |
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| author | Hao Wang Xiaomang Liu Kaiwen Wang Changming Liu |
| author_facet | Hao Wang Xiaomang Liu Kaiwen Wang Changming Liu |
| author_sort | Hao Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Rising atmospheric CO2 is anticipated to influence global runoff through its radiative effect and physiological effect, thereby resulting in profound impacts on water availability and security. While existing literature has explored the two effects on global total runoff, there is still a lack of attention to changes in runoff components (surface and subsurface runoff). Here, based on idealized 1% yr−1 CO2 increase experiments and 14 Earth system models, we decouple the two effects on changes in runoff components and disentangle the contributions of three influencing factors, namely water supply, atmospheric water demand, and vegetation regulation, which are closely intertwined with the two effects. Global total runoff is expected to increase with rising CO2, and this increase mainly comes from subsurface runoff, leading to an elevated subsurface runoff ratio. Vegetation regulation emerges as the most important factor for the increase in subsurface runoff ratio, with the contribution of 49.3%, followed by water supply (41.7%) and atmospheric water demand (8.9%). Increased total runoff implies potentially more flood risk, while the increase in subsurface runoff ratio could decrease some of the risk. The results indicate the necessity of emphasizing changes in subsurface runoff under climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-353a85e6022d4ee7885f1683ffb0a9cb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-353a85e6022d4ee7885f1683ffb0a9cb2024-12-10T08:50:40ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-11-011211n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005091Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2Hao Wang0Xiaomang Liu1Kaiwen Wang2Changming Liu3Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaAbstract Rising atmospheric CO2 is anticipated to influence global runoff through its radiative effect and physiological effect, thereby resulting in profound impacts on water availability and security. While existing literature has explored the two effects on global total runoff, there is still a lack of attention to changes in runoff components (surface and subsurface runoff). Here, based on idealized 1% yr−1 CO2 increase experiments and 14 Earth system models, we decouple the two effects on changes in runoff components and disentangle the contributions of three influencing factors, namely water supply, atmospheric water demand, and vegetation regulation, which are closely intertwined with the two effects. Global total runoff is expected to increase with rising CO2, and this increase mainly comes from subsurface runoff, leading to an elevated subsurface runoff ratio. Vegetation regulation emerges as the most important factor for the increase in subsurface runoff ratio, with the contribution of 49.3%, followed by water supply (41.7%) and atmospheric water demand (8.9%). Increased total runoff implies potentially more flood risk, while the increase in subsurface runoff ratio could decrease some of the risk. The results indicate the necessity of emphasizing changes in subsurface runoff under climate change.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005091 |
| spellingShingle | Hao Wang Xiaomang Liu Kaiwen Wang Changming Liu Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2 Earth's Future |
| title | Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2 |
| title_full | Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2 |
| title_fullStr | Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2 |
| title_short | Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2 |
| title_sort | response of global runoff components to rising co2 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005091 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT haowang responseofglobalrunoffcomponentstorisingco2 AT xiaomangliu responseofglobalrunoffcomponentstorisingco2 AT kaiwenwang responseofglobalrunoffcomponentstorisingco2 AT changmingliu responseofglobalrunoffcomponentstorisingco2 |