Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2

Abstract Rising atmospheric CO2 is anticipated to influence global runoff through its radiative effect and physiological effect, thereby resulting in profound impacts on water availability and security. While existing literature has explored the two effects on global total runoff, there is still a l...

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Main Authors: Hao Wang, Xiaomang Liu, Kaiwen Wang, Changming Liu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-11-01
Series:Earth's Future
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005091
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author Hao Wang
Xiaomang Liu
Kaiwen Wang
Changming Liu
author_facet Hao Wang
Xiaomang Liu
Kaiwen Wang
Changming Liu
author_sort Hao Wang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Rising atmospheric CO2 is anticipated to influence global runoff through its radiative effect and physiological effect, thereby resulting in profound impacts on water availability and security. While existing literature has explored the two effects on global total runoff, there is still a lack of attention to changes in runoff components (surface and subsurface runoff). Here, based on idealized 1% yr−1 CO2 increase experiments and 14 Earth system models, we decouple the two effects on changes in runoff components and disentangle the contributions of three influencing factors, namely water supply, atmospheric water demand, and vegetation regulation, which are closely intertwined with the two effects. Global total runoff is expected to increase with rising CO2, and this increase mainly comes from subsurface runoff, leading to an elevated subsurface runoff ratio. Vegetation regulation emerges as the most important factor for the increase in subsurface runoff ratio, with the contribution of 49.3%, followed by water supply (41.7%) and atmospheric water demand (8.9%). Increased total runoff implies potentially more flood risk, while the increase in subsurface runoff ratio could decrease some of the risk. The results indicate the necessity of emphasizing changes in subsurface runoff under climate change.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2328-4277
language English
publishDate 2024-11-01
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series Earth's Future
spelling doaj-art-353a85e6022d4ee7885f1683ffb0a9cb2024-12-10T08:50:40ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-11-011211n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005091Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2Hao Wang0Xiaomang Liu1Kaiwen Wang2Changming Liu3Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaAbstract Rising atmospheric CO2 is anticipated to influence global runoff through its radiative effect and physiological effect, thereby resulting in profound impacts on water availability and security. While existing literature has explored the two effects on global total runoff, there is still a lack of attention to changes in runoff components (surface and subsurface runoff). Here, based on idealized 1% yr−1 CO2 increase experiments and 14 Earth system models, we decouple the two effects on changes in runoff components and disentangle the contributions of three influencing factors, namely water supply, atmospheric water demand, and vegetation regulation, which are closely intertwined with the two effects. Global total runoff is expected to increase with rising CO2, and this increase mainly comes from subsurface runoff, leading to an elevated subsurface runoff ratio. Vegetation regulation emerges as the most important factor for the increase in subsurface runoff ratio, with the contribution of 49.3%, followed by water supply (41.7%) and atmospheric water demand (8.9%). Increased total runoff implies potentially more flood risk, while the increase in subsurface runoff ratio could decrease some of the risk. The results indicate the necessity of emphasizing changes in subsurface runoff under climate change.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005091
spellingShingle Hao Wang
Xiaomang Liu
Kaiwen Wang
Changming Liu
Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2
Earth's Future
title Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2
title_full Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2
title_fullStr Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2
title_full_unstemmed Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2
title_short Response of Global Runoff Components to Rising CO2
title_sort response of global runoff components to rising co2
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005091
work_keys_str_mv AT haowang responseofglobalrunoffcomponentstorisingco2
AT xiaomangliu responseofglobalrunoffcomponentstorisingco2
AT kaiwenwang responseofglobalrunoffcomponentstorisingco2
AT changmingliu responseofglobalrunoffcomponentstorisingco2