Do Errors on Classic Decision Biases Happen Fast or Slow? Numeracy and Decision Time Predict Probability Matching, Sample Size Neglect, and Ratio Bias

Higher numeracy is associated with better comprehension and use of numeric information as well as reduced susceptibility to some decision biases. We extended this line of work by showing that increased numeracy predicted probability maximizing (versus matching) as well as a better appreciation of la...

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Main Authors: Ryan Corser, Raymond P. Voss, John D. Jasper
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: PsychOpen GOLD/ Leibniz Insitute for Psychology 2024-11-01
Series:Journal of Numerical Cognition
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5964/jnc.12473
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author Ryan Corser
Raymond P. Voss
John D. Jasper
author_facet Ryan Corser
Raymond P. Voss
John D. Jasper
author_sort Ryan Corser
collection DOAJ
description Higher numeracy is associated with better comprehension and use of numeric information as well as reduced susceptibility to some decision biases. We extended this line of work by showing that increased numeracy predicted probability maximizing (versus matching) as well as a better appreciation of large sample sizes. At the same time, we replicated the findings that the more numerate were less susceptible to the ratio bias and base rate neglect phenomena. Decision time predicted accuracy for the ratio bias, probability matching, and sample size scenarios, but not the base rate scenarios. Interestingly, this relationship between decision time and accuracy was positive for the ratio bias problems, but negative for the probability matching and sample size scenarios. Implications for research on cognitive ability and decision biases are discussed.
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spelling doaj-art-34c94f9b6f15459081f41bd90d1ccdac2024-12-09T10:42:45ZengPsychOpen GOLD/ Leibniz Insitute for PsychologyJournal of Numerical Cognition2363-87612024-11-011010.5964/jnc.12473jnc.12473Do Errors on Classic Decision Biases Happen Fast or Slow? Numeracy and Decision Time Predict Probability Matching, Sample Size Neglect, and Ratio BiasRyan Corser0Raymond P. Voss1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3416-0550John D. Jasper2Owen Graduate School of Management, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USADepartment of Psychology, Purdue University – Fort Wayne, Fort Wayne, IN, USADepartment of Psychology, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH, USAHigher numeracy is associated with better comprehension and use of numeric information as well as reduced susceptibility to some decision biases. We extended this line of work by showing that increased numeracy predicted probability maximizing (versus matching) as well as a better appreciation of large sample sizes. At the same time, we replicated the findings that the more numerate were less susceptible to the ratio bias and base rate neglect phenomena. Decision time predicted accuracy for the ratio bias, probability matching, and sample size scenarios, but not the base rate scenarios. Interestingly, this relationship between decision time and accuracy was positive for the ratio bias problems, but negative for the probability matching and sample size scenarios. Implications for research on cognitive ability and decision biases are discussed.https://doi.org/10.5964/jnc.12473numeracydecision biasprobability matchingratio biasbase ratessample size neglect
spellingShingle Ryan Corser
Raymond P. Voss
John D. Jasper
Do Errors on Classic Decision Biases Happen Fast or Slow? Numeracy and Decision Time Predict Probability Matching, Sample Size Neglect, and Ratio Bias
Journal of Numerical Cognition
numeracy
decision bias
probability matching
ratio bias
base rates
sample size neglect
title Do Errors on Classic Decision Biases Happen Fast or Slow? Numeracy and Decision Time Predict Probability Matching, Sample Size Neglect, and Ratio Bias
title_full Do Errors on Classic Decision Biases Happen Fast or Slow? Numeracy and Decision Time Predict Probability Matching, Sample Size Neglect, and Ratio Bias
title_fullStr Do Errors on Classic Decision Biases Happen Fast or Slow? Numeracy and Decision Time Predict Probability Matching, Sample Size Neglect, and Ratio Bias
title_full_unstemmed Do Errors on Classic Decision Biases Happen Fast or Slow? Numeracy and Decision Time Predict Probability Matching, Sample Size Neglect, and Ratio Bias
title_short Do Errors on Classic Decision Biases Happen Fast or Slow? Numeracy and Decision Time Predict Probability Matching, Sample Size Neglect, and Ratio Bias
title_sort do errors on classic decision biases happen fast or slow numeracy and decision time predict probability matching sample size neglect and ratio bias
topic numeracy
decision bias
probability matching
ratio bias
base rates
sample size neglect
url https://doi.org/10.5964/jnc.12473
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