Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Jiangxi Based on System Dynamics Model
To study the current situation of water resources carrying capacity and alleviate the water supply pressure in Jiangxi Province,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity,taking into account the characteristics of water resources in Jiangxi Province.Furthe...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Editorial Office of Pearl River
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails?columnId=47640313&Fpath=home&index=0 |
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| Summary: | To study the current situation of water resources carrying capacity and alleviate the water supply pressure in Jiangxi Province,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity,taking into account the characteristics of water resources in Jiangxi Province.Further,a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity was built with historical data,and four development scenarios were designed,under which the variations of various index parameters were obtained through model simulation.The weight of each index was determined by the analytic hierarchy process,and the change of water resources carrying capacity was calculated under each scenario.The following findings are obtained.① Under the current development scenario,the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province is in a state of slightly overloading.② Under the rapid development scenario,the overload of the water resources carrying capacity in Jiangxi Province becomes more serious.③ Under the water saving & pollution control and comprehensive development scenarios,the water resources carrying capacity tend to be both improved,and the improvement degree is higher under the latter scenario.The comprehensive development scenario is found to be the optimal development scenario which accords with the sustainable development of Jiangxi Province.This study can provide reference and an evaluation basis for water resources management planning in Jiangxi Province. |
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| ISSN: | 1001-9235 |