Determination of production capacity for open-pit coal mines under uncertainty: A model based on economies of scale.
The determination of optimal production capacity for open-pit mines is influenced by various economic and technical factors and is highly susceptible to uncertainties. To effectively address the impact of uncertainty on capacity planning, this study develops a production capacity planning model for...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312130 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841533147037040640 |
|---|---|
| author | Shuai Wang Bo Cao Runcai Bai Guangwei Liu |
| author_facet | Shuai Wang Bo Cao Runcai Bai Guangwei Liu |
| author_sort | Shuai Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The determination of optimal production capacity for open-pit mines is influenced by various economic and technical factors and is highly susceptible to uncertainties. To effectively address the impact of uncertainty on capacity planning, this study develops a production capacity planning model for open-pit coal mines, based on the theory of economies of scale and incorporating multiple uncertainty constraints. A novel method is proposed to quantify and propagate the uncertainties of key capacity control factors, alongside a comprehensive uncertainty analysis framework for total revenue. Using a large-scale open-pit mine as a case study, the relationships and calculation tables for the uncertainties of key control factors are provided. Based on this, a mathematical expression for total revenue under the influence of multiple uncertainties is formulated, and the optimal capacity range is calculated. The application of the model is demonstrated through this case study, revealing that the uncertainties in production costs and coal prices are (-13.05%, +27.68%) and (-10.79%, +10.79%) respectively. Subsequently, risk-tolerant capacity planning recommendations are proposed, effectively mitigating the impact of uncertainties on production capacity determination. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2ca4314a135e429093241ccd5fe62180 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-2ca4314a135e429093241ccd5fe621802025-01-17T05:31:28ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032025-01-01201e031213010.1371/journal.pone.0312130Determination of production capacity for open-pit coal mines under uncertainty: A model based on economies of scale.Shuai WangBo CaoRuncai BaiGuangwei LiuThe determination of optimal production capacity for open-pit mines is influenced by various economic and technical factors and is highly susceptible to uncertainties. To effectively address the impact of uncertainty on capacity planning, this study develops a production capacity planning model for open-pit coal mines, based on the theory of economies of scale and incorporating multiple uncertainty constraints. A novel method is proposed to quantify and propagate the uncertainties of key capacity control factors, alongside a comprehensive uncertainty analysis framework for total revenue. Using a large-scale open-pit mine as a case study, the relationships and calculation tables for the uncertainties of key control factors are provided. Based on this, a mathematical expression for total revenue under the influence of multiple uncertainties is formulated, and the optimal capacity range is calculated. The application of the model is demonstrated through this case study, revealing that the uncertainties in production costs and coal prices are (-13.05%, +27.68%) and (-10.79%, +10.79%) respectively. Subsequently, risk-tolerant capacity planning recommendations are proposed, effectively mitigating the impact of uncertainties on production capacity determination.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312130 |
| spellingShingle | Shuai Wang Bo Cao Runcai Bai Guangwei Liu Determination of production capacity for open-pit coal mines under uncertainty: A model based on economies of scale. PLoS ONE |
| title | Determination of production capacity for open-pit coal mines under uncertainty: A model based on economies of scale. |
| title_full | Determination of production capacity for open-pit coal mines under uncertainty: A model based on economies of scale. |
| title_fullStr | Determination of production capacity for open-pit coal mines under uncertainty: A model based on economies of scale. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Determination of production capacity for open-pit coal mines under uncertainty: A model based on economies of scale. |
| title_short | Determination of production capacity for open-pit coal mines under uncertainty: A model based on economies of scale. |
| title_sort | determination of production capacity for open pit coal mines under uncertainty a model based on economies of scale |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312130 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shuaiwang determinationofproductioncapacityforopenpitcoalminesunderuncertaintyamodelbasedoneconomiesofscale AT bocao determinationofproductioncapacityforopenpitcoalminesunderuncertaintyamodelbasedoneconomiesofscale AT runcaibai determinationofproductioncapacityforopenpitcoalminesunderuncertaintyamodelbasedoneconomiesofscale AT guangweiliu determinationofproductioncapacityforopenpitcoalminesunderuncertaintyamodelbasedoneconomiesofscale |