Study on the evolution of regional future drought-flood abrupt alternation events
Study region: Bengbu City, situated on the transition zone between southern and northern China. Study focus: Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) refers to the rapid succession of droughts and floods, including drought-to-flood (DTF) and flood-to-drought (FTD) events. These events occur suddenly...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825002848 |
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| author | Yanqi Wei Haichao Li Yuliang Zhou Nii Amarquaye Commey Juliang Jin Ping Zhou |
| author_facet | Yanqi Wei Haichao Li Yuliang Zhou Nii Amarquaye Commey Juliang Jin Ping Zhou |
| author_sort | Yanqi Wei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Bengbu City, situated on the transition zone between southern and northern China. Study focus: Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) refers to the rapid succession of droughts and floods, including drought-to-flood (DTF) and flood-to-drought (FTD) events. These events occur suddenly and have widespread impacts, making their identification and estimation crucial for enhancing disaster prevention capabilities. This study developed an optimized DFAA index (GDFAI). By combining historical data and General Circulation Models (GCMs), this study analyzed the historical evolution of DFAA events and projected potential risks under future emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5). New hydrological insights: (1) The GDFAI can accurately identify DFAA events with a combined error and miss rate of only 1.24 %; (2) The FTD events were more frequent during the non-flood season, whereas DTF events were concentrated in the flood season; (3) Future projections (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) showed a slight increase in slight FTD and DTF events outside the flood season. Additionally, June is projected to become a new dual-risk month, while the risk trend of February is estimated to shift from DTF to FTD. These findings can provide scientific references for optimizing reservoir management, agricultural irrigation, and disaster preparedness strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2bc80eb9dfaa4f6db3f458e9f7b5d4e7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-2bc80eb9dfaa4f6db3f458e9f7b5d4e72025-08-20T03:47:34ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-06-015910245910.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102459Study on the evolution of regional future drought-flood abrupt alternation eventsYanqi Wei0Haichao Li1Yuliang Zhou2Nii Amarquaye Commey3Juliang Jin4Ping Zhou5College of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China; School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xihua University, Chengdu 610039, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Interdisciplinary Centre for River Basin Environment, University of Yamanashi, Kofu 400-8510, JapanCollege of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China; Corresponding author.Interdisciplinary Centre for River Basin Environment, University of Yamanashi, Kofu 400-8510, JapanCollege of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, ChinaCollege of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, ChinaStudy region: Bengbu City, situated on the transition zone between southern and northern China. Study focus: Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) refers to the rapid succession of droughts and floods, including drought-to-flood (DTF) and flood-to-drought (FTD) events. These events occur suddenly and have widespread impacts, making their identification and estimation crucial for enhancing disaster prevention capabilities. This study developed an optimized DFAA index (GDFAI). By combining historical data and General Circulation Models (GCMs), this study analyzed the historical evolution of DFAA events and projected potential risks under future emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5). New hydrological insights: (1) The GDFAI can accurately identify DFAA events with a combined error and miss rate of only 1.24 %; (2) The FTD events were more frequent during the non-flood season, whereas DTF events were concentrated in the flood season; (3) Future projections (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) showed a slight increase in slight FTD and DTF events outside the flood season. Additionally, June is projected to become a new dual-risk month, while the risk trend of February is estimated to shift from DTF to FTD. These findings can provide scientific references for optimizing reservoir management, agricultural irrigation, and disaster preparedness strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825002848Climate changeGeneral Circulation ModelsDrought-flood abrupt alternationBengbu city |
| spellingShingle | Yanqi Wei Haichao Li Yuliang Zhou Nii Amarquaye Commey Juliang Jin Ping Zhou Study on the evolution of regional future drought-flood abrupt alternation events Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Climate change General Circulation Models Drought-flood abrupt alternation Bengbu city |
| title | Study on the evolution of regional future drought-flood abrupt alternation events |
| title_full | Study on the evolution of regional future drought-flood abrupt alternation events |
| title_fullStr | Study on the evolution of regional future drought-flood abrupt alternation events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study on the evolution of regional future drought-flood abrupt alternation events |
| title_short | Study on the evolution of regional future drought-flood abrupt alternation events |
| title_sort | study on the evolution of regional future drought flood abrupt alternation events |
| topic | Climate change General Circulation Models Drought-flood abrupt alternation Bengbu city |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825002848 |
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