Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey‐depleted ecosystem
Abstract Large carnivores such as the lion are declining across Africa, in part because their large herbivore prey is declining. There is consensus that increased protection from prey depletion will be necessary to reverse the decline of lion populations, but few studies have tested whether increase...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Conservation Science and Practice |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.13256 |
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| author | Scott Creel Matthew S. Becker Ben Goodheart Anna Kusler Kachama Banda Kambwiri Banda Milan Vinks Catherine Sun Chase Dart Stephi Matsushima Ruth Kabwe Will Donald Luka Zyambo Peter Indala Adrian Kaluka Clive Chifunte Craig Reid |
| author_facet | Scott Creel Matthew S. Becker Ben Goodheart Anna Kusler Kachama Banda Kambwiri Banda Milan Vinks Catherine Sun Chase Dart Stephi Matsushima Ruth Kabwe Will Donald Luka Zyambo Peter Indala Adrian Kaluka Clive Chifunte Craig Reid |
| author_sort | Scott Creel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Large carnivores such as the lion are declining across Africa, in part because their large herbivore prey is declining. There is consensus that increased protection from prey depletion will be necessary to reverse the decline of lion populations, but few studies have tested whether increased protection is sufficient to reverse the decline, particularly in the large, open ecosystems where most lions remain. Here, we used an integrated population model to test whether lion demography and population dynamics were measurably improved by increased protection. We used data from monitoring of 358 individuals from 2013 to 2021 in the Greater Kafue Ecosystem, where prior research showed that lions were strongly limited by prey depletion, but protection increased in several well‐defined areas beginning in 2018. In some other areas, protection decreased. In areas with high protection, lion fecundity was 29% higher, and mean annual apparent survival (φ) was 8.3% higher (with a minimum difference of 6.0% for prime‐aged adult females and a maximum difference of 11.9% for sub‐adult males). These demographic benefits combined to produce likely population growth in areas with high protection (λ̂ = 1.085, 90% CI = 0.97, 1.21), despite likely population decline in areas with low protection (λ̂ = 0.970, 90% CI = 0.88, 1.07). For the ecosystem as a whole, population size remained relatively constant at a moderate density of 3.74 (±0.49 SD) to 4.13 (±0.52 SD) lions/100 km2. With the growth observed in areas with high protection, the expected doubling time was 10 years. Despite this, recovery at the scale of the entire ecosystem is likely to be slow without increased protection; the current growth rate would require 50 years to double. Our results demonstrate that increased protection is likely to improve the reproduction and population growth rate of lions at a large scale within an unfenced ecosystem that has been greatly affected by poaching. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2b474ffffe9847b8bb714c655d451d12 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2578-4854 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Conservation Science and Practice |
| spelling | doaj-art-2b474ffffe9847b8bb714c655d451d122025-01-12T03:57:29ZengWileyConservation Science and Practice2578-48542025-01-0171n/an/a10.1111/csp2.13256Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey‐depleted ecosystemScott Creel0Matthew S. Becker1Ben Goodheart2Anna Kusler3Kachama Banda4Kambwiri Banda5Milan Vinks6Catherine Sun7Chase Dart8Stephi Matsushima9Ruth Kabwe10Will Donald11Luka Zyambo12Peter Indala13Adrian Kaluka14Clive Chifunte15Craig Reid16Zambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaZambian Carnivore Programme Mfuwe ZambiaMusekese Conservation Mumbwa Lusaka Province ZambiaZambia Department of National Parks and Wildlife Chunga Central Province ZambiaZambia Department of National Parks and Wildlife Chunga Central Province ZambiaZambia Department of National Parks and Wildlife Chunga Central Province ZambiaZambia Department of National Parks and Wildlife Chunga Central Province ZambiaAfrican Parks Chunga Central Province ZambiaAbstract Large carnivores such as the lion are declining across Africa, in part because their large herbivore prey is declining. There is consensus that increased protection from prey depletion will be necessary to reverse the decline of lion populations, but few studies have tested whether increased protection is sufficient to reverse the decline, particularly in the large, open ecosystems where most lions remain. Here, we used an integrated population model to test whether lion demography and population dynamics were measurably improved by increased protection. We used data from monitoring of 358 individuals from 2013 to 2021 in the Greater Kafue Ecosystem, where prior research showed that lions were strongly limited by prey depletion, but protection increased in several well‐defined areas beginning in 2018. In some other areas, protection decreased. In areas with high protection, lion fecundity was 29% higher, and mean annual apparent survival (φ) was 8.3% higher (with a minimum difference of 6.0% for prime‐aged adult females and a maximum difference of 11.9% for sub‐adult males). These demographic benefits combined to produce likely population growth in areas with high protection (λ̂ = 1.085, 90% CI = 0.97, 1.21), despite likely population decline in areas with low protection (λ̂ = 0.970, 90% CI = 0.88, 1.07). For the ecosystem as a whole, population size remained relatively constant at a moderate density of 3.74 (±0.49 SD) to 4.13 (±0.52 SD) lions/100 km2. With the growth observed in areas with high protection, the expected doubling time was 10 years. Despite this, recovery at the scale of the entire ecosystem is likely to be slow without increased protection; the current growth rate would require 50 years to double. Our results demonstrate that increased protection is likely to improve the reproduction and population growth rate of lions at a large scale within an unfenced ecosystem that has been greatly affected by poaching.https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.13256bushmeat huntingintegrated population modelKafueKavango‐Zambezi Trans‐Frontier Conservation ArealionPanthera leo |
| spellingShingle | Scott Creel Matthew S. Becker Ben Goodheart Anna Kusler Kachama Banda Kambwiri Banda Milan Vinks Catherine Sun Chase Dart Stephi Matsushima Ruth Kabwe Will Donald Luka Zyambo Peter Indala Adrian Kaluka Clive Chifunte Craig Reid Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey‐depleted ecosystem Conservation Science and Practice bushmeat hunting integrated population model Kafue Kavango‐Zambezi Trans‐Frontier Conservation Area lion Panthera leo |
| title | Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey‐depleted ecosystem |
| title_full | Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey‐depleted ecosystem |
| title_fullStr | Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey‐depleted ecosystem |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey‐depleted ecosystem |
| title_short | Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey‐depleted ecosystem |
| title_sort | changes in african lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large prey depleted ecosystem |
| topic | bushmeat hunting integrated population model Kafue Kavango‐Zambezi Trans‐Frontier Conservation Area lion Panthera leo |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.13256 |
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