Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries
Background: The recent outbreak of Monkeypox (Mpox), particularly the clade 1b variant, have shifted the epidemiological landscape, making it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Africa remains a hotspot with significant ongoing outbreaks, necessitating a focused study on outbreak tre...
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | New Microbes and New Infections |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S205229752400310X |
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| author | Diptismita Jena Sathvik Belagodu Sridhar Javedh Shareef Sirajunisa Talath Suhas Ballal Sanjay Kumar Mahakshit Bhat Shilpa Sharma M Ravi Kumar Ashish Singh Chauhan Abhay M. Gaidhane Neha Agarwal Ganesh Bushi Muhammed Shabil Quazi Syed Zahiruddin Aroop Mohanty Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq Ranjit Sah |
| author_facet | Diptismita Jena Sathvik Belagodu Sridhar Javedh Shareef Sirajunisa Talath Suhas Ballal Sanjay Kumar Mahakshit Bhat Shilpa Sharma M Ravi Kumar Ashish Singh Chauhan Abhay M. Gaidhane Neha Agarwal Ganesh Bushi Muhammed Shabil Quazi Syed Zahiruddin Aroop Mohanty Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq Ranjit Sah |
| author_sort | Diptismita Jena |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: The recent outbreak of Monkeypox (Mpox), particularly the clade 1b variant, have shifted the epidemiological landscape, making it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Africa remains a hotspot with significant ongoing outbreaks, necessitating a focused study on outbreak trends and forecasting to guide health interventions. Methods: This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset from the four most affected African countries, covering weekly and cumulative Mpox cases from August 6, 2023, to August 18, 2024. Time series analysis techniques, including ARIMA models and Join Point Regression, were employed to forecast Mpox trends and analyse the annual percentage change in new cases. Results: Descriptive statistics highlighted significant variability in Mpox cases across the studied regions with the mean cases in Africa at 72.55 and a high standard deviation of 60.885. Forecasting models suggest a continued increase in Mpox cases, with cumulative cases expected to reach 6922.95 by the 65th week (95 % CI: 6158.62 to 7687.27) and new cases projected at 45.93 (95 % CI: −88.17 to 180.04). Conclusion: The study underscores the persistent nature of Mpox outbreaks in Africa and the critical need for continuous surveillance and adaptive public health strategies. The forecasts generated offer valuable insights into potential future trends, aiding in the allocation of resources and the implementation of targeted health interventions to curb the spread of the disease. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2a69ca6004f84b4996481b20824d5d6b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2052-2975 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | New Microbes and New Infections |
| spelling | doaj-art-2a69ca6004f84b4996481b20824d5d6b2024-12-13T10:57:26ZengElsevierNew Microbes and New Infections2052-29752024-12-0162101526Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countriesDiptismita Jena0Sathvik Belagodu Sridhar1Javedh Shareef2Sirajunisa Talath3Suhas Ballal4Sanjay Kumar5Mahakshit Bhat6Shilpa Sharma7M Ravi Kumar8Ashish Singh Chauhan9Abhay M. Gaidhane10Neha Agarwal11Ganesh Bushi12Muhammed Shabil13Quazi Syed Zahiruddin14Aroop Mohanty15Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq16Ranjit Sah17Center for Global Health Research, Saveetha Medical College and Hospital, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Saveetha University, Chennai, IndiaRAK College of Pharmacy, RAK Medical & Health Sciences University, Ras Al Khaimah, 11172, United Arab EmiratesDept of Clinical Pharmacy & Pharmacology, RAK College of Pharmacy, RAK Medical & Health Sciences University, Ras Al Khaimah, 11172, United Arab EmiratesDept of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, RAK College of Pharmacy, RAK Medical & Health Sciences University, Ras Al Khaimah, 11172, United Arab EmiratesDepartment of Chemistry and Biochemistry, School of Sciences, JAIN (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, Karnataka, IndiaDepartment of Allied Healthcare and Sciences, Vivekananda Global University, Jaipur, Rajasthan, 303012, IndiaDepartment of Medicine, National Institute of Medical Sciences, NIMS University Rajasthan, Jaipur, IndiaChandigarh Pharmacy College, Chandigarh Group of Colleges-Jhanjeri, Mohali, 140307, Punjab, IndiaDepartment of Chemistry, Raghu Engineering College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, 531162, IndiaUttaranchal Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Research and Innovation, Uttaranchal University, IndiaJawaharlal Nehru Medical College, and Global Health Academy, School of Epidemiology and Public Health. Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, IndiaDepartment of General Medicine, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Clement Town, Dehradun, 248002, India; Department of Allied Sciences, Graphic Era Hill University, Clement Town, Dehradun, 248002, IndiaSchool of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, India; Evidence for Policy and Learning, Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, IndiaUniversity Center for Research and Development, Chandigarh University, Mohali, 140413, Punjab, IndiaSouth Asia Infant Feeding Research Network, Division of Evidence Synthesis, Global Consortium of Public Health and Research, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, IndiaDepartment of Microbiology, AIIMS, Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, IndiaSpecialty Internal Medicine and Quality Department, Johns Hopkins Aramco Healthcare, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia; Infectious Disease Division, Department of Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indiana, USA; Infectious Disease Division, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USASR Sanjeevani Hospital, Kalyanpur, Siraha, 56517, Nepal; Department of Microbiology, Dr. D. Y. Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr. D. Y. Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, 411018, Maharashtra, India; Department of Public Health Dentistry, Dr. D.Y. Patil Dental College and Hospital, Dr. D.Y. Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, 411018, Maharashtra, India; Corresponding author. SR Sanjeevani Hospital, Kalyanpur, Siraha 56517, Nepal.Background: The recent outbreak of Monkeypox (Mpox), particularly the clade 1b variant, have shifted the epidemiological landscape, making it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Africa remains a hotspot with significant ongoing outbreaks, necessitating a focused study on outbreak trends and forecasting to guide health interventions. Methods: This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset from the four most affected African countries, covering weekly and cumulative Mpox cases from August 6, 2023, to August 18, 2024. Time series analysis techniques, including ARIMA models and Join Point Regression, were employed to forecast Mpox trends and analyse the annual percentage change in new cases. Results: Descriptive statistics highlighted significant variability in Mpox cases across the studied regions with the mean cases in Africa at 72.55 and a high standard deviation of 60.885. Forecasting models suggest a continued increase in Mpox cases, with cumulative cases expected to reach 6922.95 by the 65th week (95 % CI: 6158.62 to 7687.27) and new cases projected at 45.93 (95 % CI: −88.17 to 180.04). Conclusion: The study underscores the persistent nature of Mpox outbreaks in Africa and the critical need for continuous surveillance and adaptive public health strategies. The forecasts generated offer valuable insights into potential future trends, aiding in the allocation of resources and the implementation of targeted health interventions to curb the spread of the disease.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S205229752400310XMpoxAfricaForecastingARIMAJoin point |
| spellingShingle | Diptismita Jena Sathvik Belagodu Sridhar Javedh Shareef Sirajunisa Talath Suhas Ballal Sanjay Kumar Mahakshit Bhat Shilpa Sharma M Ravi Kumar Ashish Singh Chauhan Abhay M. Gaidhane Neha Agarwal Ganesh Bushi Muhammed Shabil Quazi Syed Zahiruddin Aroop Mohanty Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq Ranjit Sah Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries New Microbes and New Infections Mpox Africa Forecasting ARIMA Join point |
| title | Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries |
| title_full | Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries |
| title_fullStr | Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries |
| title_short | Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries |
| title_sort | time series modelling and forecasting of monkeypox outbreak trends africa s in most affected countries |
| topic | Mpox Africa Forecasting ARIMA Join point |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S205229752400310X |
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