Reconstructing the 1968 River Chew flash flood: merging a HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidence
The devastating 1968 flash flood in the River Chew, South-West of England, serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of such natural disasters and highlights the importance of natural hazard assessments. The uncertain and often incomplete historical data, and the limited field measureme...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2377655 |
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| author | Ramtin Sabeti Ioanna Stamataki Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen |
| author_facet | Ramtin Sabeti Ioanna Stamataki Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen |
| author_sort | Ramtin Sabeti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The devastating 1968 flash flood in the River Chew, South-West of England, serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of such natural disasters and highlights the importance of natural hazard assessments. The uncertain and often incomplete historical data, and the limited field measurements at the time hindered our understanding of this event. By integrating historical evidence, including technical reports, newspapers, literature, and eyewitness accounts, with advanced hydraulic modelling (HEC-RAS 2D), this study reconstructs the 1968 flash flood. A sensitivity analysis of the computational methodologies in HEC-RAS, examining various governing equations and numerical methods, introduces an additional dimension to this research. The results verify a maximum flow rate of 165 m3/s at the Compton Dando hydrometric station, marking a 65% increase from the previous official estimate. This update aligns with over 90% of the historical flood marks observed. Findings suggest recalibrating hydrological models, revising risk assessments, and updating flood frequency analyses in the study area. This novel framework confronts the challenges of uncertain and incomplete historical records through a reverse engineering methodology to reconstruct missing peak discharges. The study also presents a new methodological blueprint that can be replicated for reconstructing historical flash flood events in various regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2993d51f0a7b4074a7a07d7e398cc586 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| spelling | doaj-art-2993d51f0a7b4074a7a07d7e398cc5862024-12-12T18:11:18ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132024-12-0115110.1080/19475705.2024.2377655Reconstructing the 1968 River Chew flash flood: merging a HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidenceRamtin Sabeti0Ioanna Stamataki1Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen2Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, University of Bath, Bath, UKSchool of Engineering, University of Greenwich, Chatham Maritime, UKDepartment of Architecture and Civil Engineering, University of Bath, Bath, UKThe devastating 1968 flash flood in the River Chew, South-West of England, serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of such natural disasters and highlights the importance of natural hazard assessments. The uncertain and often incomplete historical data, and the limited field measurements at the time hindered our understanding of this event. By integrating historical evidence, including technical reports, newspapers, literature, and eyewitness accounts, with advanced hydraulic modelling (HEC-RAS 2D), this study reconstructs the 1968 flash flood. A sensitivity analysis of the computational methodologies in HEC-RAS, examining various governing equations and numerical methods, introduces an additional dimension to this research. The results verify a maximum flow rate of 165 m3/s at the Compton Dando hydrometric station, marking a 65% increase from the previous official estimate. This update aligns with over 90% of the historical flood marks observed. Findings suggest recalibrating hydrological models, revising risk assessments, and updating flood frequency analyses in the study area. This novel framework confronts the challenges of uncertain and incomplete historical records through a reverse engineering methodology to reconstruct missing peak discharges. The study also presents a new methodological blueprint that can be replicated for reconstructing historical flash flood events in various regions.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2377655HEC-RAS 2Dreconstructing historical floodsflash floodhydraulic modellinggreat flood of 1968 |
| spellingShingle | Ramtin Sabeti Ioanna Stamataki Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen Reconstructing the 1968 River Chew flash flood: merging a HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidence Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk HEC-RAS 2D reconstructing historical floods flash flood hydraulic modelling great flood of 1968 |
| title | Reconstructing the 1968 River Chew flash flood: merging a HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidence |
| title_full | Reconstructing the 1968 River Chew flash flood: merging a HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidence |
| title_fullStr | Reconstructing the 1968 River Chew flash flood: merging a HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidence |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reconstructing the 1968 River Chew flash flood: merging a HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidence |
| title_short | Reconstructing the 1968 River Chew flash flood: merging a HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidence |
| title_sort | reconstructing the 1968 river chew flash flood merging a hec ras 2d hydraulic modelling approach with historical evidence |
| topic | HEC-RAS 2D reconstructing historical floods flash flood hydraulic modelling great flood of 1968 |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2377655 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ramtinsabeti reconstructingthe1968riverchewflashfloodmergingahecras2dhydraulicmodellingapproachwithhistoricalevidence AT ioannastamataki reconstructingthe1968riverchewflashfloodmergingahecras2dhydraulicmodellingapproachwithhistoricalevidence AT thomasroddingkjeldsen reconstructingthe1968riverchewflashfloodmergingahecras2dhydraulicmodellingapproachwithhistoricalevidence |