Predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children, adolescents and adults: protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care-based retrospective cohort
Introduction Most asthma attacks and subsequent deaths are potentially preventable. We aim to develop a prognostic tool for identifying patients at high risk of asthma attacks in primary care by leveraging advances in machine learning.Methods and analysis Current prognostic tools use logistic regres...
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| Language: | English |
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BMJ Publishing Group
2020-07-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/7/e036099.full |
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| author | Aziz Sheikh Syed Ahmar Shah Mome Mukherjee |
| author_facet | Aziz Sheikh Syed Ahmar Shah Mome Mukherjee |
| author_sort | Aziz Sheikh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction Most asthma attacks and subsequent deaths are potentially preventable. We aim to develop a prognostic tool for identifying patients at high risk of asthma attacks in primary care by leveraging advances in machine learning.Methods and analysis Current prognostic tools use logistic regression to develop a risk scoring model for asthma attacks. We propose to build on this by systematically applying various well-known machine learning techniques to a large longitudinal deidentified primary care database, the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, and comparatively evaluate their performance with the existing logistic regression model and against each other. Machine learning algorithms vary in their predictive abilities based on the dataset and the approach to analysis employed. We will undertake feature selection, classification (both one-class and two-class classifiers) and performance evaluation. Patients who have had actively treated clinician-diagnosed asthma, aged 8–80 years and with 3 years of continuous data, from 2016 to 2018, will be selected. Risk factors will be obtained from the first year, while the next 2 years will form the outcome period, in which the primary endpoint will be the occurrence of an asthma attack.Ethics and dissemination We have obtained approval from OPCRD’s Anonymous Data Ethics Protocols and Transparency (ADEPT) Committee. We will seek ethics approval from The University of Edinburgh’s Research Ethics Group (UREG). We aim to present our findings at scientific conferences and in peer-reviewed journals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-292cdff4513d453e8333d5871e1e9054 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-292cdff4513d453e8333d5871e1e90542024-12-04T20:30:09ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552020-07-0110710.1136/bmjopen-2019-036099Predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children, adolescents and adults: protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care-based retrospective cohortAziz Sheikh0Syed Ahmar Shah1Mome Mukherjee2Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKUsher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK1 Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United KingdomIntroduction Most asthma attacks and subsequent deaths are potentially preventable. We aim to develop a prognostic tool for identifying patients at high risk of asthma attacks in primary care by leveraging advances in machine learning.Methods and analysis Current prognostic tools use logistic regression to develop a risk scoring model for asthma attacks. We propose to build on this by systematically applying various well-known machine learning techniques to a large longitudinal deidentified primary care database, the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, and comparatively evaluate their performance with the existing logistic regression model and against each other. Machine learning algorithms vary in their predictive abilities based on the dataset and the approach to analysis employed. We will undertake feature selection, classification (both one-class and two-class classifiers) and performance evaluation. Patients who have had actively treated clinician-diagnosed asthma, aged 8–80 years and with 3 years of continuous data, from 2016 to 2018, will be selected. Risk factors will be obtained from the first year, while the next 2 years will form the outcome period, in which the primary endpoint will be the occurrence of an asthma attack.Ethics and dissemination We have obtained approval from OPCRD’s Anonymous Data Ethics Protocols and Transparency (ADEPT) Committee. We will seek ethics approval from The University of Edinburgh’s Research Ethics Group (UREG). We aim to present our findings at scientific conferences and in peer-reviewed journals.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/7/e036099.full |
| spellingShingle | Aziz Sheikh Syed Ahmar Shah Mome Mukherjee Predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children, adolescents and adults: protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care-based retrospective cohort BMJ Open |
| title | Predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children, adolescents and adults: protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care-based retrospective cohort |
| title_full | Predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children, adolescents and adults: protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care-based retrospective cohort |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children, adolescents and adults: protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care-based retrospective cohort |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children, adolescents and adults: protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care-based retrospective cohort |
| title_short | Predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children, adolescents and adults: protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care-based retrospective cohort |
| title_sort | predicting the risk of asthma attacks in children adolescents and adults protocol for a machine learning algorithm derived from a primary care based retrospective cohort |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/7/e036099.full |
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