Projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western United States with warming
Rock glaciers support alpine biodiversity and may respond more slowly to warming than snow or glaciers. While responses of snow and glaciers to climate change are relatively well understood, a robust assessment of rock glacier environmental niche, future distributions of rock glaciers and potential...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Glaciology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002214302400056X/type/journal_article |
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| author | Abigail C. Lute John T. Abatzoglou Andrew G. Fountain Timothy C. Bartholomaus |
| author_facet | Abigail C. Lute John T. Abatzoglou Andrew G. Fountain Timothy C. Bartholomaus |
| author_sort | Abigail C. Lute |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Rock glaciers support alpine biodiversity and may respond more slowly to warming than snow or glaciers. While responses of snow and glaciers to climate change are relatively well understood, a robust assessment of rock glacier environmental niche, future distributions of rock glaciers and potential for development of rock glaciers from current glaciers is lacking. Using process-relevant, high-resolution environmental descriptors, we develop a species distribution model of the topographic, geologic and hydroclimatic niche of rock glaciers that provides novel estimates of potential rock glacier distributions for different climates. We identify mean annual air temperature and headwall area as the dominant controls on rock glacier spatial distributions, with rock glaciers more likely to be found in areas with mean annual temperatures close to −5°C, little rain, northern aspects and broad headwalls. While rock glacier climate equilibration may take hundreds of years, we find that equilibration to present climate will result in a 50% reduction in rock glacier habitat and equilibration to late 21st-century climate under a high-end warming scenario will result in a 99% reduction in rock glacier habitat across the western USA. Under future conditions, we find limited potential for glacier to rock glacier transformation (3% of glacierized area), concentrated in cold, high elevation, moderate precipitation areas. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-262a8754922a4dbbb816b50b1d6ce6c0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Glaciology |
| spelling | doaj-art-262a8754922a4dbbb816b50b1d6ce6c02025-01-16T21:51:49ZengCambridge University PressJournal of Glaciology0022-14301727-56522024-01-017010.1017/jog.2024.56Projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western United States with warmingAbigail C. Lute0John T. Abatzoglou1Andrew G. Fountain2Timothy C. Bartholomaus3Water Resources Program, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USAManagement of Complex Systems, University of California, Merced, CA 95343, USADepartments of Geology and Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97201, USADepartment of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USARock glaciers support alpine biodiversity and may respond more slowly to warming than snow or glaciers. While responses of snow and glaciers to climate change are relatively well understood, a robust assessment of rock glacier environmental niche, future distributions of rock glaciers and potential for development of rock glaciers from current glaciers is lacking. Using process-relevant, high-resolution environmental descriptors, we develop a species distribution model of the topographic, geologic and hydroclimatic niche of rock glaciers that provides novel estimates of potential rock glacier distributions for different climates. We identify mean annual air temperature and headwall area as the dominant controls on rock glacier spatial distributions, with rock glaciers more likely to be found in areas with mean annual temperatures close to −5°C, little rain, northern aspects and broad headwalls. While rock glacier climate equilibration may take hundreds of years, we find that equilibration to present climate will result in a 50% reduction in rock glacier habitat and equilibration to late 21st-century climate under a high-end warming scenario will result in a 99% reduction in rock glacier habitat across the western USA. Under future conditions, we find limited potential for glacier to rock glacier transformation (3% of glacierized area), concentrated in cold, high elevation, moderate precipitation areas.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002214302400056X/type/journal_articleclimate changeglacier mappingglaciological model experimentsice and climatemountain glaciers |
| spellingShingle | Abigail C. Lute John T. Abatzoglou Andrew G. Fountain Timothy C. Bartholomaus Projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western United States with warming Journal of Glaciology climate change glacier mapping glaciological model experiments ice and climate mountain glaciers |
| title | Projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western United States with warming |
| title_full | Projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western United States with warming |
| title_fullStr | Projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western United States with warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western United States with warming |
| title_short | Projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western United States with warming |
| title_sort | projected loss of rock glacier habitat in the contiguous western united states with warming |
| topic | climate change glacier mapping glaciological model experiments ice and climate mountain glaciers |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002214302400056X/type/journal_article |
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