Assessing the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on Economic Growth: A Machine Learning and Cointegration Approach in 28 Countries

In this study, the effect of freight and passenger transport in different modes on economic growth is determined for 28 selected countries. The Westerlund cointegration test is used to reveal the long-term relationship between freight and passenger transportation and growth. According to the cointe...

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Main Authors: Esme Isik, Ayfer Ozyilmaz, Yüksel Bayraktar, Metin Toprak, Mehmet Fırat Olgun, Nazli Keyifli Senturk
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: TU Delft OPEN Publishing 2025-03-01
Series:European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research
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Online Access:https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/7715
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author Esme Isik
Ayfer Ozyilmaz
Yüksel Bayraktar
Metin Toprak
Mehmet Fırat Olgun
Nazli Keyifli Senturk
author_facet Esme Isik
Ayfer Ozyilmaz
Yüksel Bayraktar
Metin Toprak
Mehmet Fırat Olgun
Nazli Keyifli Senturk
author_sort Esme Isik
collection DOAJ
description In this study, the effect of freight and passenger transport in different modes on economic growth is determined for 28 selected countries. The Westerlund cointegration test is used to reveal the long-term relationship between freight and passenger transportation and growth. According to the cointegration analysis, all transportation modes (road, rail, and air) are cointegrated with growth. Additionally, machine learning models were used to predict growth based on each transportation mode for each country for the upcoming four years and to determine the importance of the input parameters. According to the importance of the parameter analysis, for the entire panel, rail transport is the most effective transport mode for economic growth. On a country-by-country basis, the findings differ. Rail transport is the strongest transport mode for growth in high-income countries. However, although it is not the dominant mode, the relative impact of air passenger transport is strong. In upper middle-income countries, there generally is not a dominant mode of transport, but in general, freight transport is important to economic growth. In passenger transportation, air passenger transport is the most prominent mode in these countries. In lower middle-income countries, rail freight is the strongest transport mode for economic growth.
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institution Kabale University
issn 1567-7141
language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher TU Delft OPEN Publishing
record_format Article
series European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research
spelling doaj-art-23ee4bd2bcb6413e9859c6010d10fded2025-08-20T03:44:21ZengTU Delft OPEN PublishingEuropean Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research1567-71412025-03-0125110.59490/ejtir.2025.25.1.7715Assessing the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on Economic Growth: A Machine Learning and Cointegration Approach in 28 CountriesEsme Isik0Ayfer Ozyilmaz1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9201-2508Yüksel Bayraktar2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3499-4571Metin Toprak3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-6318Mehmet Fırat Olgun4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2728-0714Nazli Keyifli SenturkMalatya Turgut Ozal UniversityKırıkkale UniversityAnkara UniversityHalic UniversityKastamonu University In this study, the effect of freight and passenger transport in different modes on economic growth is determined for 28 selected countries. The Westerlund cointegration test is used to reveal the long-term relationship between freight and passenger transportation and growth. According to the cointegration analysis, all transportation modes (road, rail, and air) are cointegrated with growth. Additionally, machine learning models were used to predict growth based on each transportation mode for each country for the upcoming four years and to determine the importance of the input parameters. According to the importance of the parameter analysis, for the entire panel, rail transport is the most effective transport mode for economic growth. On a country-by-country basis, the findings differ. Rail transport is the strongest transport mode for growth in high-income countries. However, although it is not the dominant mode, the relative impact of air passenger transport is strong. In upper middle-income countries, there generally is not a dominant mode of transport, but in general, freight transport is important to economic growth. In passenger transportation, air passenger transport is the most prominent mode in these countries. In lower middle-income countries, rail freight is the strongest transport mode for economic growth. https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/7715TransportationLogisticsEconomic GrowthArtificial Neural Network
spellingShingle Esme Isik
Ayfer Ozyilmaz
Yüksel Bayraktar
Metin Toprak
Mehmet Fırat Olgun
Nazli Keyifli Senturk
Assessing the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on Economic Growth: A Machine Learning and Cointegration Approach in 28 Countries
European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research
Transportation
Logistics
Economic Growth
Artificial Neural Network
title Assessing the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on Economic Growth: A Machine Learning and Cointegration Approach in 28 Countries
title_full Assessing the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on Economic Growth: A Machine Learning and Cointegration Approach in 28 Countries
title_fullStr Assessing the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on Economic Growth: A Machine Learning and Cointegration Approach in 28 Countries
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on Economic Growth: A Machine Learning and Cointegration Approach in 28 Countries
title_short Assessing the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on Economic Growth: A Machine Learning and Cointegration Approach in 28 Countries
title_sort assessing the impact of multimodal transportation on economic growth a machine learning and cointegration approach in 28 countries
topic Transportation
Logistics
Economic Growth
Artificial Neural Network
url https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/7715
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AT ayferozyilmaz assessingtheimpactofmultimodaltransportationoneconomicgrowthamachinelearningandcointegrationapproachin28countries
AT yukselbayraktar assessingtheimpactofmultimodaltransportationoneconomicgrowthamachinelearningandcointegrationapproachin28countries
AT metintoprak assessingtheimpactofmultimodaltransportationoneconomicgrowthamachinelearningandcointegrationapproachin28countries
AT mehmetfıratolgun assessingtheimpactofmultimodaltransportationoneconomicgrowthamachinelearningandcointegrationapproachin28countries
AT nazlikeyiflisenturk assessingtheimpactofmultimodaltransportationoneconomicgrowthamachinelearningandcointegrationapproachin28countries