Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles
Abstract The state-of-the-art in the theory of self-organized criticality reveals that a certain inactivity precedes extreme events, which are located on the tail of the event probability distribution with respect to their sizes. The existence of the inactivity allows for the prediction of these eve...
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80621-w |
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| author | Denis Sapozhnikov Alexander Shapoval Mikhail Shnirman |
| author_facet | Denis Sapozhnikov Alexander Shapoval Mikhail Shnirman |
| author_sort | Denis Sapozhnikov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The state-of-the-art in the theory of self-organized criticality reveals that a certain inactivity precedes extreme events, which are located on the tail of the event probability distribution with respect to their sizes. The existence of the inactivity allows for the prediction of these events in advance. In this work, we explore the predictability of the Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld (BTW) and Manna models on the square lattice as a function of the lattice length. For both models, we use an algorithm that forecasts the occurrence of large events after a fall in activity. The efficiency of the prediction can be universally described in terms of the event size divided by an appropriate power-law function of the lattice length. The power-law exponents are projected to be 2.75 and 3 for the Manna and BTW models respectively. The scaling with the exponent 2.75 is known for collapsing of the entire size-frequency relationship in the Manna model. However, the correspondence between events on different lattices in the BTW model requires a variety of exponents where 3 is the largest. This indicates that in thermodynamic limit, prediction does exist in the Manna but not in the BTW model, at least based on inactivity. The difference in the universality classes may underline the difference in the prediction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-21733bfa7a0c41b3af72d4a24e42f890 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-21733bfa7a0c41b3af72d4a24e42f8902024-12-01T12:23:43ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-11-0114111110.1038/s41598-024-80621-wComparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpilesDenis Sapozhnikov0Alexander Shapoval1Mikhail Shnirman2HSE UniversityDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of ŁódżInstitute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics RASAbstract The state-of-the-art in the theory of self-organized criticality reveals that a certain inactivity precedes extreme events, which are located on the tail of the event probability distribution with respect to their sizes. The existence of the inactivity allows for the prediction of these events in advance. In this work, we explore the predictability of the Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld (BTW) and Manna models on the square lattice as a function of the lattice length. For both models, we use an algorithm that forecasts the occurrence of large events after a fall in activity. The efficiency of the prediction can be universally described in terms of the event size divided by an appropriate power-law function of the lattice length. The power-law exponents are projected to be 2.75 and 3 for the Manna and BTW models respectively. The scaling with the exponent 2.75 is known for collapsing of the entire size-frequency relationship in the Manna model. However, the correspondence between events on different lattices in the BTW model requires a variety of exponents where 3 is the largest. This indicates that in thermodynamic limit, prediction does exist in the Manna but not in the BTW model, at least based on inactivity. The difference in the universality classes may underline the difference in the prediction.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80621-wSelf-organized criticalityPrediction of extremesScalingTwo types of errorsCritical exponents |
| spellingShingle | Denis Sapozhnikov Alexander Shapoval Mikhail Shnirman Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles Scientific Reports Self-organized criticality Prediction of extremes Scaling Two types of errors Critical exponents |
| title | Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles |
| title_full | Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles |
| title_fullStr | Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles |
| title_short | Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles |
| title_sort | comparing prediction efficiency in the btw and manna sandpiles |
| topic | Self-organized criticality Prediction of extremes Scaling Two types of errors Critical exponents |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80621-w |
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