African Swine Fever in Saxony—Disease Dynamics
African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Germany in 2020. A few weeks after the initial occurrence, infected wild boar were detected in Saxony. In this study, data from wild boar surveillance in Saxony were analyzed. The analysis focused on the eastern districts of the state, where the disease likely sp...
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MDPI AG
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Viruses |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/16/12/1894 |
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| author | Katja Schulz Sandra Blome Michael Richter Tessa Carrau Christoph Staubach Carola Sauter-Louis |
| author_facet | Katja Schulz Sandra Blome Michael Richter Tessa Carrau Christoph Staubach Carola Sauter-Louis |
| author_sort | Katja Schulz |
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| description | African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Germany in 2020. A few weeks after the initial occurrence, infected wild boar were detected in Saxony. In this study, data from wild boar surveillance in Saxony were analyzed. The analysis focused on the eastern districts of the state, where the disease likely spread through infected wild boar. Additionally, data from Meissen, located approximately 65 km further west, were examined. In Meissen, the disease emerged one year later, and a human-mediated introduction was suspected. To evaluate the progression of ASF in the two study areas over time, data from active and passive surveillance were analyzed both descriptively and using a Bayesian space–time model. Prevalence estimates were calculated for wild boar testing positive for the ASF virus and for ASF-specific antibodies. Higher prevalence estimates were observed in the eastern districts, indicating a stronger viral load, consistent with patterns seen in other European regions. Over time, seroprevalence increased, suggesting an accumulation of surviving wild boar. The findings provide important insights into the epidemiology of ASF in wild boar over time. They complement the existing knowledge and support targeted ASF control measures. This is particularly significant, as ASF continues to spread across Europe rather than being successfully eradicated. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2048ab3bc6c440a086b7f19d659bb82f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Viruses |
| spelling | doaj-art-2048ab3bc6c440a086b7f19d659bb82f2024-12-27T14:59:10ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152024-12-011612189410.3390/v16121894African Swine Fever in Saxony—Disease DynamicsKatja Schulz0Sandra Blome1Michael Richter2Tessa Carrau3Christoph Staubach4Carola Sauter-Louis5Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut Institute of Epidemiology, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, GermanyFriedrich-Loeffler-InstitutInstitute of Diagnostic Virology, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, GermanyState Administration of Saxony, Department 25, Veterinary Affairs and Food Control, 01099 Dresden, GermanyFriedrich-Loeffler-InstitutInstitute of Diagnostic Virology, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, GermanyFriedrich-Loeffler-Institut Institute of Epidemiology, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, GermanyFriedrich-Loeffler-Institut Institute of Epidemiology, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, GermanyAfrican swine fever (ASF) emerged in Germany in 2020. A few weeks after the initial occurrence, infected wild boar were detected in Saxony. In this study, data from wild boar surveillance in Saxony were analyzed. The analysis focused on the eastern districts of the state, where the disease likely spread through infected wild boar. Additionally, data from Meissen, located approximately 65 km further west, were examined. In Meissen, the disease emerged one year later, and a human-mediated introduction was suspected. To evaluate the progression of ASF in the two study areas over time, data from active and passive surveillance were analyzed both descriptively and using a Bayesian space–time model. Prevalence estimates were calculated for wild boar testing positive for the ASF virus and for ASF-specific antibodies. Higher prevalence estimates were observed in the eastern districts, indicating a stronger viral load, consistent with patterns seen in other European regions. Over time, seroprevalence increased, suggesting an accumulation of surviving wild boar. The findings provide important insights into the epidemiology of ASF in wild boar over time. They complement the existing knowledge and support targeted ASF control measures. This is particularly significant, as ASF continues to spread across Europe rather than being successfully eradicated.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/16/12/1894surveillanceepidemiological courseprevalencewild boar |
| spellingShingle | Katja Schulz Sandra Blome Michael Richter Tessa Carrau Christoph Staubach Carola Sauter-Louis African Swine Fever in Saxony—Disease Dynamics Viruses surveillance epidemiological course prevalence wild boar |
| title | African Swine Fever in Saxony—Disease Dynamics |
| title_full | African Swine Fever in Saxony—Disease Dynamics |
| title_fullStr | African Swine Fever in Saxony—Disease Dynamics |
| title_full_unstemmed | African Swine Fever in Saxony—Disease Dynamics |
| title_short | African Swine Fever in Saxony—Disease Dynamics |
| title_sort | african swine fever in saxony disease dynamics |
| topic | surveillance epidemiological course prevalence wild boar |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/16/12/1894 |
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