Assessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River Basin
The severe compound hot and drought event (CHDE) in 2022 had serious impacts on water resources, agriculture, power supply, and ecosystems in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). In this paper, we asked, have similar spatiotemporally overlapping compound events, like the one observed in 2022, occurred his...
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7b5e |
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| author | Mei Mei Ying-Xian Zhang Guo-Fu Wang |
| author_facet | Mei Mei Ying-Xian Zhang Guo-Fu Wang |
| author_sort | Mei Mei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The severe compound hot and drought event (CHDE) in 2022 had serious impacts on water resources, agriculture, power supply, and ecosystems in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). In this paper, we asked, have similar spatiotemporally overlapping compound events, like the one observed in 2022, occurred historically in the basin? And, if so, how can we pre-assess the impacts of such potential events on subseasonal timescales? To address these questions, regional CHDEs in the YRB since 1961 were systematically identified and comprehensively assessed using a modified intensity–area–duration technique and hazard assessment methods. Additionally, the subseasonal pre-assessment capability for CHDEs in the YRB using the China Meteorological Administration’s third-generation climate model prediction system (CPSv3-S2S) was demonstrated. A total of 140 CHDEs occurred during 1961–2022, with the 21st century showing a remarkably high risk of such events. Among these, 2022 was the most intense year, with the event from July 26th to August 30th being unprecedented in severity. CPSv3-S2S effectively forecast this event’s occurrence within a 1–25 lead days, particularly in pre-assessing its extensively impacted area and high-hazard centers in the upper and middle reaches of the main river course. This pre-assessment method serves as a valuable reference in decision-making to anticipate and mitigate the risks of hydropower supply shortages and heightened electricity demand during extremely high temperatures in upstream areas. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1f40e0c945c84c2fa334f09a49ecedfc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
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| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-1f40e0c945c84c2fa334f09a49ecedfc2024-11-19T09:11:09ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262024-01-01191212403310.1088/1748-9326/ad7b5eAssessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River BasinMei Mei0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1138-9010Ying-Xian Zhang1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4797-545XGuo-Fu Wang2China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; National Climate Center , China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaChina Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; National Climate Center , China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaChina Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; National Climate Center , China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaThe severe compound hot and drought event (CHDE) in 2022 had serious impacts on water resources, agriculture, power supply, and ecosystems in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). In this paper, we asked, have similar spatiotemporally overlapping compound events, like the one observed in 2022, occurred historically in the basin? And, if so, how can we pre-assess the impacts of such potential events on subseasonal timescales? To address these questions, regional CHDEs in the YRB since 1961 were systematically identified and comprehensively assessed using a modified intensity–area–duration technique and hazard assessment methods. Additionally, the subseasonal pre-assessment capability for CHDEs in the YRB using the China Meteorological Administration’s third-generation climate model prediction system (CPSv3-S2S) was demonstrated. A total of 140 CHDEs occurred during 1961–2022, with the 21st century showing a remarkably high risk of such events. Among these, 2022 was the most intense year, with the event from July 26th to August 30th being unprecedented in severity. CPSv3-S2S effectively forecast this event’s occurrence within a 1–25 lead days, particularly in pre-assessing its extensively impacted area and high-hazard centers in the upper and middle reaches of the main river course. This pre-assessment method serves as a valuable reference in decision-making to anticipate and mitigate the risks of hydropower supply shortages and heightened electricity demand during extremely high temperatures in upstream areas.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7b5ecompound hot and drought eventhazard assessmenthazard pre-assessmentYangtze River BasinCPSv3 |
| spellingShingle | Mei Mei Ying-Xian Zhang Guo-Fu Wang Assessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River Basin Environmental Research Letters compound hot and drought event hazard assessment hazard pre-assessment Yangtze River Basin CPSv3 |
| title | Assessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River Basin |
| title_full | Assessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Assessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River Basin |
| title_short | Assessment and pre-assessment of compound hot and drought events over Yangtze River Basin |
| title_sort | assessment and pre assessment of compound hot and drought events over yangtze river basin |
| topic | compound hot and drought event hazard assessment hazard pre-assessment Yangtze River Basin CPSv3 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7b5e |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT meimei assessmentandpreassessmentofcompoundhotanddroughteventsoveryangtzeriverbasin AT yingxianzhang assessmentandpreassessmentofcompoundhotanddroughteventsoveryangtzeriverbasin AT guofuwang assessmentandpreassessmentofcompoundhotanddroughteventsoveryangtzeriverbasin |