Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes
ABSTRACT The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is a gregarious rodent in Central Asia and is one of the major pests found in desert forest and grassland areas. The distribution changes and migration routes of R. opimus in Central Asia under climate change remain unexplored. This study employed multi‐m...
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Wiley
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70517 |
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| author | Xuan Liu Li Xu Jianghua Zheng Jun Lin Xuan Li Liang Liu Ruikang Tian Chen Mu |
| author_facet | Xuan Liu Li Xu Jianghua Zheng Jun Lin Xuan Li Liang Liu Ruikang Tian Chen Mu |
| author_sort | Xuan Liu |
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| description | ABSTRACT The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is a gregarious rodent in Central Asia and is one of the major pests found in desert forest and grassland areas. The distribution changes and migration routes of R. opimus in Central Asia under climate change remain unexplored. This study employed multi‐model ensemble, correlation analysis, jackknife method, and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model to simulate the potential habitat of R. opimus under current and future (2030 and 2050) climate scenarios and estimate its possible migration routes. The results indicate that the ensemble model integrating Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) performed best within the present climate context. The model predicted the potential distribution of R. opimus in Central Asia with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.986 and a True Skill Statistic (TSS) of 0.899, demonstrating excellent statistical accuracy and spatial performance. Under future climate scenarios, northern Xinjiang and southeastern Kazakhstan will remain the core areas of R. opimus distribution. However, the optimal habitat region will expand relative to the current one. This expansion will increase with the rising CO2 emission levels and over time, potentially enlarging the suitable area by up to 39.49 × 104 km2. In terms of spatial distribution, the suitable habitat for R. opimus is shifting toward higher latitudes and elevations. For specific migration routes, R. opimus tends to favor paths through farmland and grassland. This study can provide guidance for managing and controlling R. opimus under future climate change scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1ac4bd7c61174ff796dede92d0ed7ebf |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-1ac4bd7c61174ff796dede92d0ed7ebf2024-12-20T04:20:57ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582024-11-011411n/an/a10.1002/ece3.70517Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and AltitudesXuan Liu0Li Xu1Jianghua Zheng2Jun Lin3Xuan Li4Liang Liu5Ruikang Tian6Chen Mu7College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang University Urumqi ChinaCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang University Urumqi ChinaCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang University Urumqi ChinaXinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Locust and Rodent Prediction Forecasting and Prevention Center Station Urumqi ChinaXinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Locust and Rodent Prediction Forecasting and Prevention Center Station Urumqi ChinaCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang University Urumqi ChinaCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang University Urumqi ChinaPrairie Station of Animal Husbandry Department in Xinjiang Urumqi ChinaABSTRACT The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is a gregarious rodent in Central Asia and is one of the major pests found in desert forest and grassland areas. The distribution changes and migration routes of R. opimus in Central Asia under climate change remain unexplored. This study employed multi‐model ensemble, correlation analysis, jackknife method, and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model to simulate the potential habitat of R. opimus under current and future (2030 and 2050) climate scenarios and estimate its possible migration routes. The results indicate that the ensemble model integrating Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) performed best within the present climate context. The model predicted the potential distribution of R. opimus in Central Asia with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.986 and a True Skill Statistic (TSS) of 0.899, demonstrating excellent statistical accuracy and spatial performance. Under future climate scenarios, northern Xinjiang and southeastern Kazakhstan will remain the core areas of R. opimus distribution. However, the optimal habitat region will expand relative to the current one. This expansion will increase with the rising CO2 emission levels and over time, potentially enlarging the suitable area by up to 39.49 × 104 km2. In terms of spatial distribution, the suitable habitat for R. opimus is shifting toward higher latitudes and elevations. For specific migration routes, R. opimus tends to favor paths through farmland and grassland. This study can provide guidance for managing and controlling R. opimus under future climate change scenarios.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70517changes in spatial distributionclimate changemigration pathsmulti‐model integrationRhombomys opimus |
| spellingShingle | Xuan Liu Li Xu Jianghua Zheng Jun Lin Xuan Li Liang Liu Ruikang Tian Chen Mu Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes Ecology and Evolution changes in spatial distribution climate change migration paths multi‐model integration Rhombomys opimus |
| title | Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes |
| title_full | Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes |
| title_fullStr | Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes |
| title_short | Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes |
| title_sort | great gerbils rhombomys opimus in central asia are spreading to higher latitudes and altitudes |
| topic | changes in spatial distribution climate change migration paths multi‐model integration Rhombomys opimus |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70517 |
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