Inflation Risk?

Abstract Inflation is on the rise again in the industrialised world. This has led to fears of a sustained surge in inflation. This article argues that while such fears may make sense in the US, they do not in the eurozone, where the monetary-fiscal policy mix has been much less expansionary than in...

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Main Author: Paul De Grauwe
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer 2021-08-01
Series:Intereconomics
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0988-3
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author Paul De Grauwe
author_facet Paul De Grauwe
author_sort Paul De Grauwe
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Inflation is on the rise again in the industrialised world. This has led to fears of a sustained surge in inflation. This article argues that while such fears may make sense in the US, they do not in the eurozone, where the monetary-fiscal policy mix has been much less expansionary than in the US. The fear expressed by some that the monetary overhang from the large injections of liquidity through quantitative easing might lead to inflation in the eurozone does not stand up to scrutiny either. The conclusion offers some observations on the monetary operating procedures in the ECB. It argues that in the future, when interest rates rise again, the ECB risks transferring all (and even more) of its profits to the banking system. This article proposes a way to avoid this unacceptable outcome.
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series Intereconomics
spelling doaj-art-19a17bd1829b485c9ba63a20f2daa6262025-01-17T08:34:13ZengSpringerIntereconomics0020-53461613-964X2021-08-0156422022210.1007/s10272-021-0988-3Inflation Risk?Paul De Grauwe0European Institute, London School of Economics and Political ScienceAbstract Inflation is on the rise again in the industrialised world. This has led to fears of a sustained surge in inflation. This article argues that while such fears may make sense in the US, they do not in the eurozone, where the monetary-fiscal policy mix has been much less expansionary than in the US. The fear expressed by some that the monetary overhang from the large injections of liquidity through quantitative easing might lead to inflation in the eurozone does not stand up to scrutiny either. The conclusion offers some observations on the monetary operating procedures in the ECB. It argues that in the future, when interest rates rise again, the ECB risks transferring all (and even more) of its profits to the banking system. This article proposes a way to avoid this unacceptable outcome.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0988-3
spellingShingle Paul De Grauwe
Inflation Risk?
Intereconomics
title Inflation Risk?
title_full Inflation Risk?
title_fullStr Inflation Risk?
title_full_unstemmed Inflation Risk?
title_short Inflation Risk?
title_sort inflation risk
url https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0988-3
work_keys_str_mv AT pauldegrauwe inflationrisk