Approximation of the infection-age-structured SIR model by the conventional SIR model of infectious disease epidemiology

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the effective reproduction number (R-eff) has frequently been used to describe the course of the pandemic. Analytical properties of R-eff are rarely studied. We analytically examine how and under which conditions the conventional susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) mod...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Ralph Brinks, Annika Hoyer
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2024-12-01
Series:Frontiers in Epidemiology
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fepid.2024.1429034/full
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Summary:During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the effective reproduction number (R-eff) has frequently been used to describe the course of the pandemic. Analytical properties of R-eff are rarely studied. We analytically examine how and under which conditions the conventional susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model (without infection age) serves as an approximation to the infection-age-structured SIR model. Special emphasis is given to the role of R-eff, which is an implicit parameter in the infection-age-structured SIR model and an explicit parameter in the approximation. The analytical findings are illustrated by a simulation study about an hypothetical intervention during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and by historical data from an influenza outbreak in Prussian army camps in the region of Arnsberg (Germany), 1918–1919.
ISSN:2674-1199