An Ensemble for Automatic Time Series Forecasting With K-Nearest Neighbors
In this paper a novel approach for automatically configuring a k-nearest neighbors regressor for univariate time series forecasting is presented. The approach uses an ensemble consisting of several k-nearest neighbors models with different configurations for their hyperparameters and model selection...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IEEE
2025-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10820325/ |
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| Summary: | In this paper a novel approach for automatically configuring a k-nearest neighbors regressor for univariate time series forecasting is presented. The approach uses an ensemble consisting of several k-nearest neighbors models with different configurations for their hyperparameters and model selection choices. One advantage of this scheme is that the uncertainty associated with choosing a wrong configuration for the model is reduced. This approach is compared with the classical way of selecting a configuration by doing a grid search among several configurations of hyperparameters and model selection choices and choosing the one that performs best on a validation set. The experimental results, using datasets from time series forecasting competitions, show that, in line with previous works, the use of an ensemble produces a robust model, outperforming the approach that uses a grid search for obtaining the best configuration on a validation set and almost any specific configuration. The forecast accuracy of the ensemble is similar to state-of-the-art models. Furthermore, this paper also tests the effectiveness of some recent approaches for dealing with trending time series when using the k-nearest neighbors algorithm. |
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| ISSN: | 2169-3536 |