Observing Array Designed for Improving the Short‐Term Prediction of Kuroshio Extension State Transition Processes

Abstract Given the essential implications of Kuroshio Extension (KE) bimodality on oceanic dynamical environment and climate, the present study investigates the targeted observation schemes, based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method and a reduced‐gravity shallow‐water mod...

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Main Authors: Yu Geng, Qiang Wang, Hong‐Li Ren, Bo Dan, Stefano Pierini, Hui Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2024-11-01
Series:Earth and Space Science
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003881
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author Yu Geng
Qiang Wang
Hong‐Li Ren
Bo Dan
Stefano Pierini
Hui Zhang
author_facet Yu Geng
Qiang Wang
Hong‐Li Ren
Bo Dan
Stefano Pierini
Hui Zhang
author_sort Yu Geng
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Given the essential implications of Kuroshio Extension (KE) bimodality on oceanic dynamical environment and climate, the present study investigates the targeted observation schemes, based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method and a reduced‐gravity shallow‐water model, to improve the forecast skills of transition processes of KE bimodal states. To obtain a suitable observing array, the observation schemes, with different numbers of observation sites and observation distances between two sites, are designed. Furthermore, to demonstrate the superiority of the observing networks in predicting KE transition processes, two existing observation schemes and six random observation schemes are compared with the CNOP‐determined observing array. Based on this, a relatively optimal observing array with three sites and observation distance of 90 km is established, which is mainly located between 31°N and 33°N in the south of Japan. This targeted observing network is universal for two KE transition processes. The removal of initial errors on this array results in the mean prediction improvements of about 9.2% and 22.5% for KE transition processes from the low‐ to the high‐energy state and from the high‐ to the low‐energy state, respectively.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2333-5084
language English
publishDate 2024-11-01
publisher American Geophysical Union (AGU)
record_format Article
series Earth and Space Science
spelling doaj-art-0f36def06e7741e9b34eb50f9793c8bb2024-12-14T03:25:53ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Earth and Space Science2333-50842024-11-011111n/an/a10.1029/2024EA003881Observing Array Designed for Improving the Short‐Term Prediction of Kuroshio Extension State Transition ProcessesYu Geng0Qiang Wang1Hong‐Li Ren2Bo Dan3Stefano Pierini4Hui Zhang5State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaCollege of Oceanography Hohai University Nanjing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Ministry of Natural Resources for Marine Environmental Information Technology National Marine Data and Information Service Ministry of Natural Resources Tianjin ChinaDipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Università di Napoli Parthenope Naples ItalyCAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao ChinaAbstract Given the essential implications of Kuroshio Extension (KE) bimodality on oceanic dynamical environment and climate, the present study investigates the targeted observation schemes, based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method and a reduced‐gravity shallow‐water model, to improve the forecast skills of transition processes of KE bimodal states. To obtain a suitable observing array, the observation schemes, with different numbers of observation sites and observation distances between two sites, are designed. Furthermore, to demonstrate the superiority of the observing networks in predicting KE transition processes, two existing observation schemes and six random observation schemes are compared with the CNOP‐determined observing array. Based on this, a relatively optimal observing array with three sites and observation distance of 90 km is established, which is mainly located between 31°N and 33°N in the south of Japan. This targeted observing network is universal for two KE transition processes. The removal of initial errors on this array results in the mean prediction improvements of about 9.2% and 22.5% for KE transition processes from the low‐ to the high‐energy state and from the high‐ to the low‐energy state, respectively.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003881Kuroshio Extensionbimodalityshort‐term predictiontargeted observing array
spellingShingle Yu Geng
Qiang Wang
Hong‐Li Ren
Bo Dan
Stefano Pierini
Hui Zhang
Observing Array Designed for Improving the Short‐Term Prediction of Kuroshio Extension State Transition Processes
Earth and Space Science
Kuroshio Extension
bimodality
short‐term prediction
targeted observing array
title Observing Array Designed for Improving the Short‐Term Prediction of Kuroshio Extension State Transition Processes
title_full Observing Array Designed for Improving the Short‐Term Prediction of Kuroshio Extension State Transition Processes
title_fullStr Observing Array Designed for Improving the Short‐Term Prediction of Kuroshio Extension State Transition Processes
title_full_unstemmed Observing Array Designed for Improving the Short‐Term Prediction of Kuroshio Extension State Transition Processes
title_short Observing Array Designed for Improving the Short‐Term Prediction of Kuroshio Extension State Transition Processes
title_sort observing array designed for improving the short term prediction of kuroshio extension state transition processes
topic Kuroshio Extension
bimodality
short‐term prediction
targeted observing array
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003881
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AT qiangwang observingarraydesignedforimprovingtheshorttermpredictionofkuroshioextensionstatetransitionprocesses
AT hongliren observingarraydesignedforimprovingtheshorttermpredictionofkuroshioextensionstatetransitionprocesses
AT bodan observingarraydesignedforimprovingtheshorttermpredictionofkuroshioextensionstatetransitionprocesses
AT stefanopierini observingarraydesignedforimprovingtheshorttermpredictionofkuroshioextensionstatetransitionprocesses
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