Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian Region

ABSTRACT Climate change significantly influences species distribution patterns. Utilizing Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) in climate change research provides valuable insights into species–environment relationships and can inform conservation management decisions. We analyzed climate change effects o...

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Main Authors: Habibollah Ijbari, Jamil Vaezi, Maryam Behroozian, Hamid Ejtehadi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-08-01
Series:Ecology and Evolution
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71877
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author Habibollah Ijbari
Jamil Vaezi
Maryam Behroozian
Hamid Ejtehadi
author_facet Habibollah Ijbari
Jamil Vaezi
Maryam Behroozian
Hamid Ejtehadi
author_sort Habibollah Ijbari
collection DOAJ
description ABSTRACT Climate change significantly influences species distribution patterns. Utilizing Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) in climate change research provides valuable insights into species–environment relationships and can inform conservation management decisions. We analyzed climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Tamarix dubia Bunge, an endemic species in the Irano‐Turanian region, using ENM approaches. We modeled the current and future suitable areas for T. dubia using the Maxent algorithm under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the period 2041–2060. The results revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) and precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16) were determined to be the most important explanatory climatic variables affecting T. dubia distribution. Under both future scenarios, we predicted a decrease in the suitable habitat range of T. dubia in the period 2041–2060. Moreover, a relatively high loss of suitability was anticipated in the actual ranges of species. The results indicated that the distribution of T. dubia, a drought‐tolerant plant species, is likely to be affected significantly by climate change. This study supports future management plans for T. dubia and provides insights into the impacts of climate change on endemic species in arid and semi‐arid regions, which are valuable for understanding distribution patterns and informing future research in the Irano‐Turanian region.
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spelling doaj-art-0f03f22ea66f4bf8b290cedd4c19ba9a2025-08-25T08:18:16ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582025-08-01158n/an/a10.1002/ece3.71877Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian RegionHabibollah Ijbari0Jamil Vaezi1Maryam Behroozian2Hamid Ejtehadi3Quantitative Plant Ecology and Biodiversity Research Lab, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad IranQuantitative Plant Ecology and Biodiversity Research Lab, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad IranHerbarium FUMH Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad IranQuantitative Plant Ecology and Biodiversity Research Lab, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad IranABSTRACT Climate change significantly influences species distribution patterns. Utilizing Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) in climate change research provides valuable insights into species–environment relationships and can inform conservation management decisions. We analyzed climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Tamarix dubia Bunge, an endemic species in the Irano‐Turanian region, using ENM approaches. We modeled the current and future suitable areas for T. dubia using the Maxent algorithm under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the period 2041–2060. The results revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) and precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16) were determined to be the most important explanatory climatic variables affecting T. dubia distribution. Under both future scenarios, we predicted a decrease in the suitable habitat range of T. dubia in the period 2041–2060. Moreover, a relatively high loss of suitability was anticipated in the actual ranges of species. The results indicated that the distribution of T. dubia, a drought‐tolerant plant species, is likely to be affected significantly by climate change. This study supports future management plans for T. dubia and provides insights into the impacts of climate change on endemic species in arid and semi‐arid regions, which are valuable for understanding distribution patterns and informing future research in the Irano‐Turanian region.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71877climate changeecological niche modelingendemic specieshabitat suitabilityMaxEnt modelTamarix dubia
spellingShingle Habibollah Ijbari
Jamil Vaezi
Maryam Behroozian
Hamid Ejtehadi
Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian Region
Ecology and Evolution
climate change
ecological niche modeling
endemic species
habitat suitability
MaxEnt model
Tamarix dubia
title Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian Region
title_full Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian Region
title_fullStr Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian Region
title_full_unstemmed Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian Region
title_short Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian Region
title_sort impact of climate change on the distributional potential of the endemic species tamarix dubia bunge and conservation implications for the irano turanian region
topic climate change
ecological niche modeling
endemic species
habitat suitability
MaxEnt model
Tamarix dubia
url https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71877
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