Weight Gain, Weight Loss, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: Evidence From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

ABSTRACT Introduction While type 2 diabetes (T2DM) has become a major health issue in the North American and Caribbean region, the effects of weight change on incident T2DM, conditional on either initial or attained weight, are poorly addressed. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of 3‐year wei...

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Main Authors: Samaneh Asgari, Soroush Masrouri, Davood Khalili, Mojtaba Lotfaliany, Farzad Hadaegh
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-05-01
Series:Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/edm2.70040
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author Samaneh Asgari
Soroush Masrouri
Davood Khalili
Mojtaba Lotfaliany
Farzad Hadaegh
author_facet Samaneh Asgari
Soroush Masrouri
Davood Khalili
Mojtaba Lotfaliany
Farzad Hadaegh
author_sort Samaneh Asgari
collection DOAJ
description ABSTRACT Introduction While type 2 diabetes (T2DM) has become a major health issue in the North American and Caribbean region, the effects of weight change on incident T2DM, conditional on either initial or attained weight, are poorly addressed. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of 3‐year weight change on incident T2DM over 6 years among US individuals. Methods A total of 8377 participants aged 45–64 years (4601 women), free of T2DM or cancer at baseline from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study were included. Weight measurements were taken at baseline (visit 1, 1987–89) and approximately 3 years later (visit 2, 1990–92). Participants were categorised based on their weight change ratio into ≥ 5% weight loss, stable (±5%), and ≥ 5% weight gain. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for known diabetes risk factors, were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident T2DM, with stable weight (±5%) as the reference category. Results During a median follow‐up period of 6 years, participants were classified into three categories: 361 persons remained stable (±5%), 47 with ≥ 5% loss, and 135 with ≥ 5% gain. In multivariable analysis, after adjustment with initial weight, ≥ 5% weight gain and loss were significantly associated with higher [HR (95% CI): 1.68 (1.36–2.06), p‐value < 0.0001] and lower [0.73 (0.53–1.00), p‐value = 0.05] risks of incident T2DM, respectively. When adjusted for attained weight, weight gain ≥ 5% remained a significant risk factor for T2DM [1.51 (1.21–1.88)]; however, weight loss ≥ 5% lost statistical significance [0.84 (0.60–1.17), p‐value = 0.31]. Conclusions We found a robust association between weight gain and incident T2DM; however, the beneficial impact of weight loss was significantly attenuated after considering the attained weight.
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series Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism
spelling doaj-art-0ec8223e0e934c74b88cdf7a4c2a8d7d2025-08-20T03:48:15ZengWileyEndocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism2398-92382025-05-0183n/an/a10.1002/edm2.70040Weight Gain, Weight Loss, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: Evidence From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) StudySamaneh Asgari0Soroush Masrouri1Davood Khalili2Mojtaba Lotfaliany3Farzad Hadaegh4Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Metabolic and Obesity Disorders, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran IranPrevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Metabolic and Obesity Disorders, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran IranPrevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Metabolic and Obesity Disorders, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran IranIMPACT, The Institute for Mental and Physical Health and Clinical Translation, School of Medicine, Barwon Health Deakin University Geelong AustraliaPrevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Metabolic and Obesity Disorders, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran IranABSTRACT Introduction While type 2 diabetes (T2DM) has become a major health issue in the North American and Caribbean region, the effects of weight change on incident T2DM, conditional on either initial or attained weight, are poorly addressed. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of 3‐year weight change on incident T2DM over 6 years among US individuals. Methods A total of 8377 participants aged 45–64 years (4601 women), free of T2DM or cancer at baseline from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study were included. Weight measurements were taken at baseline (visit 1, 1987–89) and approximately 3 years later (visit 2, 1990–92). Participants were categorised based on their weight change ratio into ≥ 5% weight loss, stable (±5%), and ≥ 5% weight gain. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for known diabetes risk factors, were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident T2DM, with stable weight (±5%) as the reference category. Results During a median follow‐up period of 6 years, participants were classified into three categories: 361 persons remained stable (±5%), 47 with ≥ 5% loss, and 135 with ≥ 5% gain. In multivariable analysis, after adjustment with initial weight, ≥ 5% weight gain and loss were significantly associated with higher [HR (95% CI): 1.68 (1.36–2.06), p‐value < 0.0001] and lower [0.73 (0.53–1.00), p‐value = 0.05] risks of incident T2DM, respectively. When adjusted for attained weight, weight gain ≥ 5% remained a significant risk factor for T2DM [1.51 (1.21–1.88)]; however, weight loss ≥ 5% lost statistical significance [0.84 (0.60–1.17), p‐value = 0.31]. Conclusions We found a robust association between weight gain and incident T2DM; however, the beneficial impact of weight loss was significantly attenuated after considering the attained weight.https://doi.org/10.1002/edm2.70040atherosclerosis risk in communities studyincidenttype 2 diabetesweight gainweight loss
spellingShingle Samaneh Asgari
Soroush Masrouri
Davood Khalili
Mojtaba Lotfaliany
Farzad Hadaegh
Weight Gain, Weight Loss, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: Evidence From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism
atherosclerosis risk in communities study
incident
type 2 diabetes
weight gain
weight loss
title Weight Gain, Weight Loss, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: Evidence From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
title_full Weight Gain, Weight Loss, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: Evidence From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
title_fullStr Weight Gain, Weight Loss, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: Evidence From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
title_full_unstemmed Weight Gain, Weight Loss, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: Evidence From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
title_short Weight Gain, Weight Loss, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: Evidence From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
title_sort weight gain weight loss and type 2 diabetes risk evidence from the atherosclerosis risk in communities aric study
topic atherosclerosis risk in communities study
incident
type 2 diabetes
weight gain
weight loss
url https://doi.org/10.1002/edm2.70040
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AT davoodkhalili weightgainweightlossandtype2diabetesriskevidencefromtheatherosclerosisriskincommunitiesaricstudy
AT mojtabalotfaliany weightgainweightlossandtype2diabetesriskevidencefromtheatherosclerosisriskincommunitiesaricstudy
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