Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft
ABSTRACT The International Civil Aviation Organization promotes prioritization of wildlife management on airports, among other safety issues, by emphasizing the risk of wildlife–aircraft collisions (strikes). In its basic form, strike risk comprises a frequency component (i.e., how often strikes occ...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-03-01
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| Series: | Wildlife Society Bulletin |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/wsb.859 |
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| author | Travis L. DeVault Bradley F. Blackwell Thomas W. Seamans Michael J. Begier Jason D. Kougher Jenny E. Washburn Phyllis R. Miller Richard A. Dolbeer |
| author_facet | Travis L. DeVault Bradley F. Blackwell Thomas W. Seamans Michael J. Begier Jason D. Kougher Jenny E. Washburn Phyllis R. Miller Richard A. Dolbeer |
| author_sort | Travis L. DeVault |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT The International Civil Aviation Organization promotes prioritization of wildlife management on airports, among other safety issues, by emphasizing the risk of wildlife–aircraft collisions (strikes). In its basic form, strike risk comprises a frequency component (i.e., how often strikes occur) and a severity component reflecting the cost of the incident. However, there is no widely accepted formula for estimating strike risk. Our goal was to develop a probabilistic risk metric that is adaptable for airports to use. Our specific objectives were to 1) update species‐specific, relative hazard scores (i.e., the likelihood of aircraft damage or effect on flight when strikes occur) using recent U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) wildlife strike data (2010–2015); 2) develop 4 a priori risk models, reflecting species‐specific strike data and updated relative hazard scores; 3) test these models against independent data (monetary costs associated with strikes); and 4) apply our best model to strike data from 4 large, FAA‐certificated airports to illustrate its application at the local level. Our best‐fitting risk model included an independent variable that was an interaction of quadratic transformed relative hazard score and number of wildlife strikes (r2 = 0.74). Top species in terms of estimated risk nationally were red‐tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), turkey vulture (Cathartes aura), rock pigeon (Columba livia), and mourning dove (Zenaida macroura). We found substantial overlap among the top 5 riskiest species locally across 3 of 4 airports considered, illustrating the degree of site‐specific differences that affect risk. Strike risk is dynamic; therefore, future work on risk estimation should allow for model adjustment to reflect ongoing wildlife management actions at airports that could influence future strike risk. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0b5eaa29e20b4ea0a2d74085d082420a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-5540 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wildlife Society Bulletin |
| spelling | doaj-art-0b5eaa29e20b4ea0a2d74085d082420a2024-12-16T13:40:44ZengWileyWildlife Society Bulletin2328-55402018-03-014219410110.1002/wsb.859Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraftTravis L. DeVault0Bradley F. Blackwell1Thomas W. Seamans2Michael J. Begier3Jason D. Kougher4Jenny E. Washburn5Phyllis R. Miller6Richard A. Dolbeer7U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceWildlife Services, National Wildlife Research CenterOhio Field Station, 6100 Columbus AvenueSanduskyOH44870USAU.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceWildlife Services, National Wildlife Research CenterOhio Field Station, 6100 Columbus AvenueSanduskyOH44870USAU.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceWildlife Services, National Wildlife Research CenterOhio Field Station, 6100 Columbus AvenueSanduskyOH44870USAU.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceWildlife Services, Airports Wildlife Hazards Program1400 Independence Avenue SWWashingtonD.C.20250USAU.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceWildlife Services, Airports Wildlife Hazards Program6100 Columbus AvenueSanduskyOH44870USAU.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceWildlife Services, Airports Wildlife Hazards Program6100 Columbus AvenueSanduskyOH44870USAU.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceWildlife Services, Airports Wildlife Hazards Program6100 Columbus AvenueSanduskyOH44870USAU.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceWildlife Services, Airports Wildlife Hazards Program6100 Columbus AvenueSanduskyOH44870USAABSTRACT The International Civil Aviation Organization promotes prioritization of wildlife management on airports, among other safety issues, by emphasizing the risk of wildlife–aircraft collisions (strikes). In its basic form, strike risk comprises a frequency component (i.e., how often strikes occur) and a severity component reflecting the cost of the incident. However, there is no widely accepted formula for estimating strike risk. Our goal was to develop a probabilistic risk metric that is adaptable for airports to use. Our specific objectives were to 1) update species‐specific, relative hazard scores (i.e., the likelihood of aircraft damage or effect on flight when strikes occur) using recent U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) wildlife strike data (2010–2015); 2) develop 4 a priori risk models, reflecting species‐specific strike data and updated relative hazard scores; 3) test these models against independent data (monetary costs associated with strikes); and 4) apply our best model to strike data from 4 large, FAA‐certificated airports to illustrate its application at the local level. Our best‐fitting risk model included an independent variable that was an interaction of quadratic transformed relative hazard score and number of wildlife strikes (r2 = 0.74). Top species in terms of estimated risk nationally were red‐tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), turkey vulture (Cathartes aura), rock pigeon (Columba livia), and mourning dove (Zenaida macroura). We found substantial overlap among the top 5 riskiest species locally across 3 of 4 airports considered, illustrating the degree of site‐specific differences that affect risk. Strike risk is dynamic; therefore, future work on risk estimation should allow for model adjustment to reflect ongoing wildlife management actions at airports that could influence future strike risk. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.https://doi.org/10.1002/wsb.859airportaviationbird strikerelative hazard scorestrike risk |
| spellingShingle | Travis L. DeVault Bradley F. Blackwell Thomas W. Seamans Michael J. Begier Jason D. Kougher Jenny E. Washburn Phyllis R. Miller Richard A. Dolbeer Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft Wildlife Society Bulletin airport aviation bird strike relative hazard score strike risk |
| title | Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft |
| title_full | Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft |
| title_fullStr | Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft |
| title_short | Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft |
| title_sort | estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft |
| topic | airport aviation bird strike relative hazard score strike risk |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/wsb.859 |
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