Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term Forecasts
Nowadays, the tourism industry has become one of the most important sectors in the world economy. Due to the perishability of this industry, accurate forecasting of the demand is very important for tourism planning and resource allocation. Studies show that due to the diversity and complexity of the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of science and culture
2022-07-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Web Research |
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| Online Access: | https://ijwr.usc.ac.ir/article_164086_132e5e709608e37f177c011a747d2249.pdf |
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| author | Elaheh Malekzadeh Hamedani Marjan Kaedi Zahra Zojaji |
| author_facet | Elaheh Malekzadeh Hamedani Marjan Kaedi Zahra Zojaji |
| author_sort | Elaheh Malekzadeh Hamedani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Nowadays, the tourism industry has become one of the most important sectors in the world economy. Due to the perishability of this industry, accurate forecasting of the demand is very important for tourism planning and resource allocation. Studies show that due to the diversity and complexity of the factors affecting tourism demand, the combination of different approaches may increase the forecasting accuracy. The aim of this paper is to forecast the tourism demand of Alisadr cave. For this purpose, a method based on artificial neural networks is presented, in which the results of linear and non-linear methods and short-term and long-term forecasts are combined. This method is applied to a dataset of Alisadr cave tourists. The evaluation results show that in most cases, the proposed combined method can predict the tourism demand with higher accuracy than the monthly and seasonal methods based on neural networks and random forest models. The predictive models obtained from this study can enhance customer service and improve the interaction between users and tourist ticketing web applications and online reservation programs. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0676be1fe3954fbf9bd7668d026c0f3d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2645-4343 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | University of science and culture |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Web Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-0676be1fe3954fbf9bd7668d026c0f3d2025-01-04T09:50:57ZengUniversity of science and cultureInternational Journal of Web Research2645-43432022-07-0152475310.22133/ijwr.2022.362392.1134Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term ForecastsElaheh Malekzadeh Hamedani 0Marjan Kaedi 1Zahra Zojaji2Faculty of Computer Engineering, University of Isfahan, IranFaculty of Computer Engineering, University of Isfahan, IranFaculty of Computer Engineering, University of Isfahan, IranNowadays, the tourism industry has become one of the most important sectors in the world economy. Due to the perishability of this industry, accurate forecasting of the demand is very important for tourism planning and resource allocation. Studies show that due to the diversity and complexity of the factors affecting tourism demand, the combination of different approaches may increase the forecasting accuracy. The aim of this paper is to forecast the tourism demand of Alisadr cave. For this purpose, a method based on artificial neural networks is presented, in which the results of linear and non-linear methods and short-term and long-term forecasts are combined. This method is applied to a dataset of Alisadr cave tourists. The evaluation results show that in most cases, the proposed combined method can predict the tourism demand with higher accuracy than the monthly and seasonal methods based on neural networks and random forest models. The predictive models obtained from this study can enhance customer service and improve the interaction between users and tourist ticketing web applications and online reservation programs. https://ijwr.usc.ac.ir/article_164086_132e5e709608e37f177c011a747d2249.pdfdemand forecastingtourismalisadr caveneural networkscombined forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Elaheh Malekzadeh Hamedani Marjan Kaedi Zahra Zojaji Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term Forecasts International Journal of Web Research demand forecasting tourism alisadr cave neural networks combined forecasting |
| title | Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term Forecasts |
| title_full | Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term Forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term Forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term Forecasts |
| title_short | Forecasting Alisadr Cave Tourism Demand using Combination of Short-term and Long-term Forecasts |
| title_sort | forecasting alisadr cave tourism demand using combination of short term and long term forecasts |
| topic | demand forecasting tourism alisadr cave neural networks combined forecasting |
| url | https://ijwr.usc.ac.ir/article_164086_132e5e709608e37f177c011a747d2249.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT elahehmalekzadehhamedani forecastingalisadrcavetourismdemandusingcombinationofshorttermandlongtermforecasts AT marjankaedi forecastingalisadrcavetourismdemandusingcombinationofshorttermandlongtermforecasts AT zahrazojaji forecastingalisadrcavetourismdemandusingcombinationofshorttermandlongtermforecasts |