Development of a New Generalizable, Multivariate, and Physical-Body-Response-Based Extreme Heatwave Index
The primary goal of this study is to introduce the initial phase of developing an impact-based forecasting system for extreme heatwaves, utilizing a novel multivariate index which, at this early stage, already employs a combination of a statistical approach and physical principles related to human b...
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2024-12-01
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| author | Marcio Cataldi Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves Leandro Alcoforado Sphaier Ginés Garnés-Morales Victoria Gallardo Laurel Molina Párraga Juan Pedro Montávez Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero |
| author_facet | Marcio Cataldi Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves Leandro Alcoforado Sphaier Ginés Garnés-Morales Victoria Gallardo Laurel Molina Párraga Juan Pedro Montávez Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero |
| author_sort | Marcio Cataldi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The primary goal of this study is to introduce the initial phase of developing an impact-based forecasting system for extreme heatwaves, utilizing a novel multivariate index which, at this early stage, already employs a combination of a statistical approach and physical principles related to human body water loss. This system also incorporates a mitigation plan with hydration-focused measures. Since 1990, heatwaves have become increasingly frequent and intense across many regions worldwide, particularly in Europe and Asia. The main health impacts of heatwaves include organ strain and damage, exacerbation of cardiovascular and kidney diseases, and adverse reproductive effects. These consequences are most pronounced in individuals aged 65 and older. Many national meteorological services have established metrics to assess the frequency and severity of heatwaves within their borders. These metrics typically rely on specific threshold values or ranges of near-surface (2 m) air temperature, often derived from historical extreme temperature records. However, to our knowledge, only a few of these metrics consider the persistence of heatwave events, and even fewer account for relative humidity. In response, this study aims to develop a globally applicable normalized index that can be used across various temporal scales and regions. This index incorporates the potential health risks associated with relative humidity, accounts for the duration of extreme heatwave events, and is exponentially sensitive to exposure to extreme heat conditions above critical thresholds of temperature. This novel index could be more suitable/adapted to guide national meteorological services when emitting warnings during extreme heatwave events about the health risks on the population. The index was computed under two scenarios: first, in forecasting heatwave episodes over a specific temporal horizon using the WRF model; second, in evaluating the relationship between the index, mortality data, and maximum temperature anomalies during the 2003 summer heatwave in Spain. Moreover, the study assessed the annual trend of increasing extreme heatwaves in Spain using ERA5 data on a climatic scale. The results show that this index has considerable potential as a decision-support and health risk assessment tool. It demonstrates greater sensitivity to extreme risk episodes compared to linear evaluations of extreme temperatures. Furthermore, its formulation aligns with the physical mechanisms of water loss in the human body, while also factoring in the effects of relative humidity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0394a57a675344f69b1c5c8d3e17c836 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-0394a57a675344f69b1c5c8d3e17c8362024-12-27T14:10:05ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-12-011512154110.3390/atmos15121541Development of a New Generalizable, Multivariate, and Physical-Body-Response-Based Extreme Heatwave IndexMarcio Cataldi0Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves1Leandro Alcoforado Sphaier2Ginés Garnés-Morales3Victoria Gallardo4Laurel Molina Párraga5Juan Pedro Montávez6Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero7Regional Atmospheric Modelling Group (MAR), Physics of the Earth, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) “Campus Mare Nostrum”, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, SpainClimate System Monitoring and Modeling Laboratory, Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Federal Fluminense University, Niterói 24220-900, BrazilLaboratory of Thermal Sciences—LATERMO, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Federal Fluminense University—PGMEC/UFF, Rua Passo da Pátria 156, Bloco D, Sala 302, Niterói 24210-240, BrazilRegional Atmospheric Modelling Group (MAR), Physics of the Earth, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) “Campus Mare Nostrum”, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, SpainRegional Atmospheric Modelling Group (MAR), Physics of the Earth, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) “Campus Mare Nostrum”, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, SpainRegional Atmospheric Modelling Group (MAR), Physics of the Earth, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) “Campus Mare Nostrum”, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, SpainRegional Atmospheric Modelling Group (MAR), Physics of the Earth, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) “Campus Mare Nostrum”, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, SpainRegional Atmospheric Modelling Group (MAR), Physics of the Earth, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) “Campus Mare Nostrum”, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, SpainThe primary goal of this study is to introduce the initial phase of developing an impact-based forecasting system for extreme heatwaves, utilizing a novel multivariate index which, at this early stage, already employs a combination of a statistical approach and physical principles related to human body water loss. This system also incorporates a mitigation plan with hydration-focused measures. Since 1990, heatwaves have become increasingly frequent and intense across many regions worldwide, particularly in Europe and Asia. The main health impacts of heatwaves include organ strain and damage, exacerbation of cardiovascular and kidney diseases, and adverse reproductive effects. These consequences are most pronounced in individuals aged 65 and older. Many national meteorological services have established metrics to assess the frequency and severity of heatwaves within their borders. These metrics typically rely on specific threshold values or ranges of near-surface (2 m) air temperature, often derived from historical extreme temperature records. However, to our knowledge, only a few of these metrics consider the persistence of heatwave events, and even fewer account for relative humidity. In response, this study aims to develop a globally applicable normalized index that can be used across various temporal scales and regions. This index incorporates the potential health risks associated with relative humidity, accounts for the duration of extreme heatwave events, and is exponentially sensitive to exposure to extreme heat conditions above critical thresholds of temperature. This novel index could be more suitable/adapted to guide national meteorological services when emitting warnings during extreme heatwave events about the health risks on the population. The index was computed under two scenarios: first, in forecasting heatwave episodes over a specific temporal horizon using the WRF model; second, in evaluating the relationship between the index, mortality data, and maximum temperature anomalies during the 2003 summer heatwave in Spain. Moreover, the study assessed the annual trend of increasing extreme heatwaves in Spain using ERA5 data on a climatic scale. The results show that this index has considerable potential as a decision-support and health risk assessment tool. It demonstrates greater sensitivity to extreme risk episodes compared to linear evaluations of extreme temperatures. Furthermore, its formulation aligns with the physical mechanisms of water loss in the human body, while also factoring in the effects of relative humidity.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/12/1541climate changeclimate and healthextreme eventsprevention and mitigationatmospheric modeling |
| spellingShingle | Marcio Cataldi Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves Leandro Alcoforado Sphaier Ginés Garnés-Morales Victoria Gallardo Laurel Molina Párraga Juan Pedro Montávez Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero Development of a New Generalizable, Multivariate, and Physical-Body-Response-Based Extreme Heatwave Index Atmosphere climate change climate and health extreme events prevention and mitigation atmospheric modeling |
| title | Development of a New Generalizable, Multivariate, and Physical-Body-Response-Based Extreme Heatwave Index |
| title_full | Development of a New Generalizable, Multivariate, and Physical-Body-Response-Based Extreme Heatwave Index |
| title_fullStr | Development of a New Generalizable, Multivariate, and Physical-Body-Response-Based Extreme Heatwave Index |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a New Generalizable, Multivariate, and Physical-Body-Response-Based Extreme Heatwave Index |
| title_short | Development of a New Generalizable, Multivariate, and Physical-Body-Response-Based Extreme Heatwave Index |
| title_sort | development of a new generalizable multivariate and physical body response based extreme heatwave index |
| topic | climate change climate and health extreme events prevention and mitigation atmospheric modeling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/12/1541 |
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