PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD
Crude oil is one of the non-renewable natural resources that is crucial for countries around the world in driving economic development. However, the availability of crude oil is decreasing over time. The high demand for crude oil results in scarcity which causes price fluctuations. Low oil prices ca...
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Universitas Pattimura
2024-07-01
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| Online Access: | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12205 |
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| author | Alma Khalisa Rahma Qumadha Zaenal Abidin Juan Krisfigo Prasetyo Berliani Larasati Dita Amelia Nur Chamidah |
| author_facet | Alma Khalisa Rahma Qumadha Zaenal Abidin Juan Krisfigo Prasetyo Berliani Larasati Dita Amelia Nur Chamidah |
| author_sort | Alma Khalisa Rahma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Crude oil is one of the non-renewable natural resources that is crucial for countries around the world in driving economic development. However, the availability of crude oil is decreasing over time. The high demand for crude oil results in scarcity which causes price fluctuations. Low oil prices can reduce state revenues, disrupt development programs, and even trigger budget deficits. On the other hand, an increase in crude oil prices can make a positive contribution to state revenues. Crude oil exports become more profitable, which can increase state revenue through royalties and taxes levied on the oil and gas sector. This additional revenue can be used to support infrastructure development, social programs, and investment in key sectors of the economy. High oil prices can also harm the economy. With the many impacts that can be caused by crude oil prices, the government must be able to anticipate and prepare for it. The data used in this study are data on crude oil prices in Indonesia for monthly periods from January 2018 to October 2023 sourced from the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of the Republic of Indonesia. The researcher tried to compare two analysis methods, namely the Fourier series and the ARIMA estimator. The results of this study show that the best method in predicting crude oil prices in Indonesia is the Fourier series estimator with Cos-Sin function which produces RMSE and MAPE values of 7.93 and 8.4%. The prediction results can be used as a reference for the government to anticipate and make programs or policies that are more focused and targeted toward the impacts that can be caused by changes in crude oil prices. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0347b51e21e24aa89790172093237cae |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1978-7227 2615-3017 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Pattimura |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Barekeng |
| spelling | doaj-art-0347b51e21e24aa89790172093237cae2025-08-20T03:49:07ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172024-07-011831673168210.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1673-168212205PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHODAlma Khalisa Rahma0Qumadha Zaenal Abidin1Juan Krisfigo Prasetyo2Berliani Larasati3Dita Amelia4Nur Chamidah5Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaMathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaMathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaMathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaMathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaMathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaCrude oil is one of the non-renewable natural resources that is crucial for countries around the world in driving economic development. However, the availability of crude oil is decreasing over time. The high demand for crude oil results in scarcity which causes price fluctuations. Low oil prices can reduce state revenues, disrupt development programs, and even trigger budget deficits. On the other hand, an increase in crude oil prices can make a positive contribution to state revenues. Crude oil exports become more profitable, which can increase state revenue through royalties and taxes levied on the oil and gas sector. This additional revenue can be used to support infrastructure development, social programs, and investment in key sectors of the economy. High oil prices can also harm the economy. With the many impacts that can be caused by crude oil prices, the government must be able to anticipate and prepare for it. The data used in this study are data on crude oil prices in Indonesia for monthly periods from January 2018 to October 2023 sourced from the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of the Republic of Indonesia. The researcher tried to compare two analysis methods, namely the Fourier series and the ARIMA estimator. The results of this study show that the best method in predicting crude oil prices in Indonesia is the Fourier series estimator with Cos-Sin function which produces RMSE and MAPE values of 7.93 and 8.4%. The prediction results can be used as a reference for the government to anticipate and make programs or policies that are more focused and targeted toward the impacts that can be caused by changes in crude oil prices.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12205crude oilarimaforecastingfourier series estimator |
| spellingShingle | Alma Khalisa Rahma Qumadha Zaenal Abidin Juan Krisfigo Prasetyo Berliani Larasati Dita Amelia Nur Chamidah PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD Barekeng crude oil arima forecasting fourier series estimator |
| title | PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD |
| title_full | PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD |
| title_fullStr | PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD |
| title_full_unstemmed | PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD |
| title_short | PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD |
| title_sort | prediction of crude oil prices in indonesia using fourier series estimator and arima method |
| topic | crude oil arima forecasting fourier series estimator |
| url | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12205 |
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