Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-Making

In recent years, cybersecurity management has increasingly required advanced methodologies capable of handling complex, evolving threat landscapes. Scenario network-based approaches have emerged as effective strategies for managing uncertainty and adaptability in cybersecurity projects. This article...

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Main Authors: Vadim Tynchenko, Alexander Lomazov, Vadim Lomazov, Dmitry Evsyukov, Vladimir Nelyub, Aleksei Borodulin, Andrei Gantimurov, Ivan Malashin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-11-01
Series:Big Data and Cognitive Computing
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2504-2289/8/11/150
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author Vadim Tynchenko
Alexander Lomazov
Vadim Lomazov
Dmitry Evsyukov
Vladimir Nelyub
Aleksei Borodulin
Andrei Gantimurov
Ivan Malashin
author_facet Vadim Tynchenko
Alexander Lomazov
Vadim Lomazov
Dmitry Evsyukov
Vladimir Nelyub
Aleksei Borodulin
Andrei Gantimurov
Ivan Malashin
author_sort Vadim Tynchenko
collection DOAJ
description In recent years, cybersecurity management has increasingly required advanced methodologies capable of handling complex, evolving threat landscapes. Scenario network-based approaches have emerged as effective strategies for managing uncertainty and adaptability in cybersecurity projects. This article introduces a scenario network-based approach for managing cybersecurity projects, utilizing fuzzy linguistic models and a Takagi–Sugeno–Kanga fuzzy neural network. Drawing upon L. Zadeh’s theory of linguistic variables, the methodology integrates expert analysis, linguistic variables, and a continuous genetic algorithm to predict membership function parameters. Fuzzy production rules are employed for decision-making, while the Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm enhances interpretability. This approach enables multi-scenario planning and adaptability across multi-stage cybersecurity projects. Preliminary results from a research prototype of an intelligent expert system—designed to analyze project stages and adaptively construct project trajectories—suggest the proposed approach is effective. In computational experiments, the use of fuzzy procedures resulted in an over 25% reduction in errors compared to traditional methods, particularly in adjusting project scenarios from pessimistic to baseline projections. While promising, this approach requires further testing across diverse cybersecurity contexts. Future studies will aim to refine scenario adaptation and optimize system response in high-risk project environments.
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spelling doaj-art-01ad86a831c34133b550b6d9394ed16f2024-11-26T17:51:11ZengMDPI AGBig Data and Cognitive Computing2504-22892024-11-0181115010.3390/bdcc8110150Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-MakingVadim Tynchenko0Alexander Lomazov1Vadim Lomazov2Dmitry Evsyukov3Vladimir Nelyub4Aleksei Borodulin5Andrei Gantimurov6Ivan Malashin7Artificial Intelligence Technology Scientific and Education Center, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005 Moscow, RussiaDepartment of Data Analysis and Machine Learning, Financial University, 125167 Moscow, RussiaDepartment of Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry and Information Technologies, Belgorod State Agricultural University Named After V. Gorin, 308503 Belgorod, RussiaArtificial Intelligence Technology Scientific and Education Center, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005 Moscow, RussiaArtificial Intelligence Technology Scientific and Education Center, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005 Moscow, RussiaArtificial Intelligence Technology Scientific and Education Center, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005 Moscow, RussiaArtificial Intelligence Technology Scientific and Education Center, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005 Moscow, RussiaArtificial Intelligence Technology Scientific and Education Center, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005 Moscow, RussiaIn recent years, cybersecurity management has increasingly required advanced methodologies capable of handling complex, evolving threat landscapes. Scenario network-based approaches have emerged as effective strategies for managing uncertainty and adaptability in cybersecurity projects. This article introduces a scenario network-based approach for managing cybersecurity projects, utilizing fuzzy linguistic models and a Takagi–Sugeno–Kanga fuzzy neural network. Drawing upon L. Zadeh’s theory of linguistic variables, the methodology integrates expert analysis, linguistic variables, and a continuous genetic algorithm to predict membership function parameters. Fuzzy production rules are employed for decision-making, while the Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm enhances interpretability. This approach enables multi-scenario planning and adaptability across multi-stage cybersecurity projects. Preliminary results from a research prototype of an intelligent expert system—designed to analyze project stages and adaptively construct project trajectories—suggest the proposed approach is effective. In computational experiments, the use of fuzzy procedures resulted in an over 25% reduction in errors compared to traditional methods, particularly in adjusting project scenarios from pessimistic to baseline projections. While promising, this approach requires further testing across diverse cybersecurity contexts. Future studies will aim to refine scenario adaptation and optimize system response in high-risk project environments.https://www.mdpi.com/2504-2289/8/11/150cybersecurityadaptive project managementscenario networkdecision supportlinguistic variablefuzzy production rule
spellingShingle Vadim Tynchenko
Alexander Lomazov
Vadim Lomazov
Dmitry Evsyukov
Vladimir Nelyub
Aleksei Borodulin
Andrei Gantimurov
Ivan Malashin
Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-Making
Big Data and Cognitive Computing
cybersecurity
adaptive project management
scenario network
decision support
linguistic variable
fuzzy production rule
title Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-Making
title_full Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-Making
title_fullStr Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-Making
title_full_unstemmed Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-Making
title_short Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-Making
title_sort adaptive management of multi scenario projects in cybersecurity models and algorithms for decision making
topic cybersecurity
adaptive project management
scenario network
decision support
linguistic variable
fuzzy production rule
url https://www.mdpi.com/2504-2289/8/11/150
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